hiking alone / emergency gear for shoulder season

[mtree]

For the OP. If you stay out of avalanche terrain you can eliminate alot of worry. I only hike established routes and/or ridgelines in winter. The one worry is if the weather changes and you get off route. As some already mentioned, you can do many things to mitigate this risk. Number one is knowing the weather forecast the day of and - as ekalina wisely noted - the next day as well. Be wary of winds. That can lead to whiteout conditions. I've endured those and its not fun. Many times you can see the potential whiteout conditions as you climb higher. Its pretty obvious.

And always look behind you! Often. Things can look strangely different on the return. I'll even snap a photo now and then for any complicated exits or turns that I might miss on the return. And if you get that feeling that things don't feel right, heed the warning and turn around.

[DestroyMySweater]

I know of at least one accident that occurred on Kendall in Silverton a couple years ago where the buried person was saved by his partner.

It should go without saying, but... for a partner to be helpful in the event of avalanche you have to both be carrying beacons/receivers and avy shovels. And in my experience, hikers RARELY ever carry these, only riders (especially the shovels). People don't realize how snow turns to concrete after an avalanche. You can't unbury someone without a large shovel. Fun fact: I once had a winter hiker tell me he carried his poop trowel as a "backup" in case of an avalanche. That's not going to help anyone. So again, unless your partner is outfitted with all these things, they aren't going to be of much help in a rescue. The real help of a partner is in observation,, decision-making, and psychological (which is real).

Having said that, if I’m solo I subconsciously push the envelope less. Maybe there’s a realization that if I’m caught with a partner watching me from a ridge line I at least have a chance.

This is an interesting counter-balance to the psychological and decision-making element of what I said above. Great insight.

[daway8]

My question here is what is the actual data on partners digging people out of an avalanche that otherwise they would have died in.

So a quick AI search shows the following stats for people fully buried in an avalanche:
~35-40% rescued by companion
~4-6% rescued by SAR
~0% self rescued (for complete burial)
~44-54% fatality

You can search yourself for more details but those sorts of numbers are why so many people continue to take avy courses - they can and do actually help.

But, as others have pointed out, everyone has to actually carry the gear for this to work - I know many people who refuse to partner with someone in winter if they don't carry avy gear and know how to use it.

And, yes, avy education and strength in numbers can backfire if it causes overconfidence and dismissal of risks.

[justiner]

I've read quite a few CAIC reports where both/multiple partners are buried, so having a partner didn't actually help (BTW, that's why you should spread out when going through potential avy terrain). There are also plenty of stories when a partner right there couldn't dig someone out (this happens more than you'd think).
I'm not saying having a partner doesn't help, but I do wonder about how much help it is when it comes to surviving avalanche.

Again I'm assuming many of the reports where a survivor was able to dig themselves out are from those who have survived. I understand your want of stats which I don't have and which I would concede to that fact. My point is just that avalanches are a lot harder to dig out than one may think naively -- it's just powdery snow, right? (no.)

And my apologies for being so obtuse on why I think Winter hiking in the high mountains is so dangerous, despite things like sat comm. One thing to realize is that electronics kinda don't work well in bitter cold. Battery power drains fast, phones tend to turn off to preserve battery/electronics health, getting snow in charging ports is an annoyance, and using things like headlamps can put more pressure on any external power source you did bring. Also just fumbling around with touch screens and buttons is extra awkward wearing gloves. Dropping things often means dropping them into snow and having to hunt for them. There are ways to mitigate this I guess: a system to keep things warm (and while in use) or specialized batteries, but it's still an issue that you should be aware of that's a lot different than in summer. I could even see a case of bringing paper maps.

I've certainly been on trips where the inreach dies, the phone dies, the headlamp dies and if it wasn't for the full moon, I'd be in a bigger pickle than I was. I've done quite a few solo trips on Longs. It never ceases to amaze me the temp drop you experience an hour before sunset compared to an hour after (I usually get a pretty late start given I start so far away).

This thread does make me want to bring more fire starting material.