How have NWS forecasts been performing for you?

[justiner]

I'm sure there's soon to be an app or subscription we can pay for to get the same quality forecasts we used to get for free.

If the forecasts are now worse off because of the NWS cuts, there isn't a way to get better ones, as all the forecasts for the US are based off their data.

And I sure hope the forecasts aren't now worse off. This isn't just about ruining a summer's day in the mountains. The floods in Texas have taken now 59 lives.

[HikerGuy]

But, I'm sure there's soon to be an app or subscription we can pay for to get the same quality forecasts we used to get for free.

That's the plan. Project 2025 calls for full commercialization of forecasting operations.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/f ... e-and-noaa

[Dave B]

I'm sure there's soon to be an app or subscription we can pay for to get the same quality forecasts we used to get for free.

If the forecasts are now worse off because of the NWS cuts, there isn't a way to get better ones, as all the forecasts for the US are based off their data.

And I sure hope the forecasts aren't now worse off. This isn't just about ruining a summer's day in the mountains. The floods in Texas have taken now 59 lives.

You're right that daily forecasts probably won't get worse, but improvements will slow or stop. Forecast accuracy has come a long way over the past 20 years, but forecasting extreme events still has a lot of room for progress. That progress relies on research, most of it led by NOAA's Oceanic and Atmospheric Research branch, which is now facing complete defunding. NOAA is also set to lose about 20 percent of its satellite operations budget, and a major next-generation satellite program planned for 2030 has been canceled.

While the same data used for forecasting will likely still be available, the loss of staff and funding at NOAA will lead to lower data quality and analyses, which will lead to poorer forecasting capacity at NWS, and then lowered trust in their forecasts (accusations of which are already flying in TX). This will open the door for privatization of forecasting.

[ncxhjhgvbi]

If the forecasts are now worse off because of the NWS cuts, there isn't a way to get better ones, as all the forecasts for the US are based off their data.

This is what most people don’t realize. Ever notice how all the news stations, wunderground, accuweather, windy, etc. change their forecasts every 6 hours? It’s because the NWS just updated theirs. It’s especially noticeable during heavy snow or rain events.

I like to use tropicaltidbits.com to view the GFS and Euro models, sometimes as they are running. Gives me at least an idea of general trend, since they load the older models too going back about a week. Since the mountains cause microclimates I focus more on general moisture in the area than anything else

[Jorts]

The Windy app compares models. I have no idea if all of the models rely on NOAA data? Regardless, NOAA’s low res model is notoriously unreliable in mountainous areas.

When the windy models converge, high confidence… if they never do, hope for the best, plan for the worst.

[mtree]

I take forecasts with a grain of salt. If its a day hike I bring EVERYTHING in my vehicle. Then I decide what I'll need when I arrive.

I learned this snowsurfing. Be prepared for anything. And it paid off this July 4th. I didn't expect cold, rain, and sleet. Thank goodness I was able to adjust. If an unexpected T-storm arrives early its a game time decision. Wind and blowing snow in the winter has also been a trek-killer. It sucks to get to the trailhead just to turn around and go home, but it happens. Generalized forecasts aren't reliable.

[Istoodupthere]

I haven’t noticed any issues with the forecasts. Mountain forecast always gives me a good general idea of what to expect with the understanding that it’s the mountains so anything can happen. Forecasts have been spot on this year

[MidsizeAl]

Yesterday I encountered weather in the Sierra Blanca quite unlike what was predicted.

For what it's worth, this has been the case with every trip I have ever made to the Sierra Blanca. On both trips last year we had a perfectly clear forecast and ended up once socked in a cloud with high winds and rain, and once retreating fromthe most intense graupel storms I've experienced. In June this year, the forecast was calling for high winds, and we ended up having one of the loveliest days of the year with almost no wind. I figured that range was just difficult to forecast, but maybe I've just been unlucky.

That being said, the funding cuts to NOAA/NWS are certainly not going to help make things more accurate. I'm not sure how it will benefit anyone at all. Akin to sawing off your own leg to save backpacking weight.

Unfortunately, everyone benefits from the hard work that they do, whether they know it or not. I suspect many will learn the hard way.

[tbonesaredelicious]

It’s very important to read the forecast discussion when trying to glean information that green/redlights a mission. Forecast often says 10% chance, yada yada, but when you look at what the forecaster actually writes they often highlight things that paint a much more comprehensive picture.

For what it’s worth, it doesn’t seem that cuts are responsible for deaths related to the flood. The NWS issued timely watches, warnings, and emergency alerts. It’s not their responsibility to distribute that information on an individual basis…

[JROSKA]

For what it’s worth, it doesn’t seem that cuts are responsible for deaths related to the flood. The NWS issued timely watches, warnings, and emergency alerts. It’s not their responsibility to distribute that information on an individual basis…

Yeah I scrolled back in the thread to see who brought the Texas floods into the discussion and that was pretty lame. Nice "mountaineering" discussion. All post-game analysis indicates that you are correct. The NWS issued warnings throughout the day Thursday and into early Friday that properly conveyed the seriousness of the situation. This looks more like a situation where local officials didn't take things seriously. One Texas official admitted "when the national government issues so many weather warnings eventually you get desensitized to it". The NWS (or any politician overseeing the NWS) can't be responsible for local ineptitude like that. As you reference, all they can do is issue the warnings but there's only so much they can do.

But because another forum member blatantly violated the forum rules (pushing political views with the purpose of instigating conflict within the forum), it's caused me to drift off topic here. I repent. The moral as it relates to the OP is, just take in as much information as you can, don't trust completely in one source, use your own reason / analysis, and be willing to adjust the plan if needed.