Climbing Decisions and Risk Assessment

[Dave B]

* Solo vs partner vs. group
* in-state vs out of state

Just here making sure Bayes' theorem is used appropriately...

Now we're talking! Gotta keep the Frequentists from dominating the conversation

[painless4u2]

Gotta keep the Frequentists from dominating the conversation

Amen to that!

Frequentist.png (18.56 KiB) Viewed 7556 times

[nunns]

While in no way referencing the recent climber who died on Capitol, I would like to echo someone who pointed out in "A cautionary tale" that fatalities are often the result of MULTIPLE bad decisions. I have frankly admitted that I made at least 2 mistakes last week:

1. Trusting a cheap tent to keep me dry.
2. Believing that hypothermia was unlikely/impossible since is was August.

Not trying to break my arm patting myself on the back, but I have to say that my bad decisions ended there. Once I was stable (albeit miserable) in my tent for the night, I made what I feel was the correct decision to rest and wait for first light to hike down. Also, I made the correct decision NOT to pursue climbing Crestone Peak the next day, which was my original plan. So I did make some mistakes, but I feel like I didn't compound them by "double down" on bad decisions. So in reference to the thread title, I assessed the risk of climbing Crestone Peak and made the decision NOT to attempt it.

Again, I am not referencing the recently deceased on Capitol. I have no idea the circumstances surrounding his fall. My prayers continue for his family.

Sean Nunn

[crestone14ers]

While in no way referencing the recent climber who died on Capitol, I would like to echo someone who pointed out in "A cautionary tale" that fatalities are often the result of MULTIPLE bad decisions. I have frankly admitted that I made at least 2 mistakes last week:

1. Trusting a cheap tent to keep me dry.
2. Believing that hypothermia was unlikely/impossible since is was August.

Not trying to break my arm patting myself on the back, but I have to say that my bad decisions ended there. Once I was stable (albeit miserable) in my tent for the night, I made what I feel was the correct decision to rest and wait for first light to hike down. Also, I made the correct decision NOT to pursue climbing Crestone Peak the next day, which was my original plan. So I did make some mistakes, but I feel like I didn't compound them by "double down" on bad decisions. So in reference to the thread title, I assessed the risk of climbing Crestone Peak and made the decision NOT to attempt it.

Again, I am not referencing the recently deceased on Capitol. I have no idea the circumstances surrounding his fall. My prayers continue for his family.

Sean Nunn

Did you... at any time... fire up your Jetboil, canister stove, gas stove... to boil water...for soup, Ramen, hot chocolate, hot tea... for any type of hot beverage... to warm up your inner core... to counter the nearing... or potential effects of hypothermia?

I ask this because I didn't see this in your postings... and this is IMPERATIVE... to surviving a hypothermia event that is unfolding.

I've been in situations in all four seasons where the weather changed drastically, where I even had the proper equipment and my core temp was dropping. Warming up your central core is one of the most important, keys to surviving a turn of events.

[breezytrees]

Regarding the heavy rains and loose rock... How long would you wait before attempting a route with significant exposure/loose rock like Capitol after such an event (rainfall)?

[oldschool]

Every time we get in vehicle we have a high probability of injury or death. Most of us (I believe) don't see it that way or feel that way about it. I ride motorcycles a lot. Every time I get on my bikes I'm very aware of the probability of injury or death. It does not stop me from going or riding. Risk vs Reward if you will. My risk, my reward.

Risk is assessed, felt, and dealt with differently from person to person. Danger is real but fear is a choice. Yes, I strongly believe that. I practice it often.....to lower the volume of fear. What is the "real" risk, what are the past experiences that have formed and shaped our opinions or feelings about risk, do we have family, spouse,...the list goes on and on.

For me:

Solo vs group - don't care. Don't see one better than the other.
In State vs Out of State - don't see a connection
Risk Assessment - a big part of it. My level of acceptable vs yours is vastly different.
Stats - lies, bloody lies, and statistics.

Longevity doesn't hold a lot of meaning to me. What I mean by that is "saving" myself for old age or stopping myself from doing something that "might hurt me" doesn't mean much to me. I do, I go, I try to be wise and make wise choices. At some point, in all probability, that streak will end. I understand and accept.

Mike

[Wentzl]

Sad story out of Telluride yesterday.

https://www.montrosepress.com/free_acce ... 4e517.html

Check out the last paragraph. 72 year old Denver man falls 500 - 1000 feet on Wilson Peak and is rescued. Wonder if we will get more on that story.

[rijaca]

https://www.montrosepress.com/free_acce ... 4e517.html

Check out the last paragraph. 72 year old Denver man falls 500 - 1000 feet on Mt Wilson and is rescued. Wonder if we will get more on that story.

The article states Wilson Peak.

“On Aug. 4, the SAR team, fire district and deputies rescued a 72-year-old Denver man who fell between 500 and 1,000 feet in the Navajo Basin while hiking Wilson Peak.”

[BillMiddlebrook]

Here's an article about the 72yo climber on Wilson Peak:

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/l ... ilson-peak

[Candace66]

...As for me, I will never complete all the 14ers. 40 plus is it for me. I am too freaked out with extreme exposure. I know my limits and my comfort zone...

Same here. The CO 14ers I haven't done involve difficult/dangerous/exposed climbing, pretty much require backpacking, or both. Add to that the extreme crowding on and near the 14ers these days. Also, I've become older and more cautious in general. The net result is that my 14ers total is unlikely to increase.

I've also found I enjoy doing more-obscure peaks that lack published routes (either in guidebooks or online), then sharing my route online.

I do everything solo nowadays, and have for years. Leaning toward obscure stuff means I rarely see anyone else on the peak. And possibly no one near it.

I suppose there is a bit more safety traveling and climbing in a group. But finding compatible company for my trips is difficult, for multiple reasons.

Also, as I noted in the other thread, there are risk factors with groups:
1. False sense of "safety in numbers"
2. Peer pressure
3. Group think
4. Group members might not react in an ideal manner during an emergency (i.e., may panic or freeze)
5. (added) Group members may not be as skilled as they believe they are

[nunns]

While in no way referencing the recent climber who died on Capitol, I would like to echo someone who pointed out in "A cautionary tale" that fatalities are often the result of MULTIPLE bad decisions. I have frankly admitted that I made at least 2 mistakes last week:

1. Trusting a cheap tent to keep me dry.
2. Believing that hypothermia was unlikely/impossible since is was August.

Not trying to break my arm patting myself on the back, but I have to say that my bad decisions ended there. Once I was stable (albeit miserable) in my tent for the night, I made what I feel was the correct decision to rest and wait for first light to hike down. Also, I made the correct decision NOT to pursue climbing Crestone Peak the next day, which was my original plan. So I did make some mistakes, but I feel like I didn't compound them by "double down" on bad decisions. So in reference to the thread title, I assessed the risk of climbing Crestone Peak and made the decision NOT to attempt it.

Again, I am not referencing the recently deceased on Capitol. I have no idea the circumstances surrounding his fall. My prayers continue for his family.

Sean Nunn

Did you... at any time... fire up your Jetboil, canister stove, gas stove... to boil water...for soup, Ramen, hot chocolate, hot tea... for any type of hot beverage... to warm up your inner core... to counter the nearing... or potential effects of hypothermia?

I ask this because I didn't see this in your postings... and this is IMPERATIVE... to surviving a hypothermia event that is unfolding.

I've been in situations in all four seasons where the weather changed drastically, where I even had the proper equipment and my core temp was dropping. Warming up your central core is one of the most important, keys to surviving a turn of events.

I did not. I would say most people don't consider a stove to be mandatory equipment on a summer climb. Doesn't mean maybe it shouldn't be. Something to think about.

Sean Nunn

[jibler]

in terms of risk management --

I've heard about so many deaths on capital I've scratched it off my list - and that was several years ago now.


just seems too sketchy - too many headlines


i was shocked to hear about the Sneffels fatality this year because I thought that was a relatively safe san juan one.

but my biggest risk factor is actually likely lightning as I am a perennial late starter and always skirting the edge on that stuff