Scary shit. Glad you made it out ok

But it makes a great story.

The avy rose is just one small piece of information, especially for the sangres that get so little information published, green or not one look at that slope I would have turned around, but I'm what most of my friends would call risk averse.

Either way, thanks for taking the time to write the report from a honest point of view, it's refreshing and helps the community learn.

Mike,
Really glad it worked out for you. I think reports like this help others reflect on risk control, and obviously this climb shook you a bit and has you reflecting. But fwiw, since you asked it's hard to say what I would have done in your shoes, it would depend so much on field observations. Your instincts certainly seemed spot on. I will say that your photo #18 looks way beyond my winter comfort zone, but maybe the perspective is skewed and it's not as steep as it looks. But I've always been skittish about slides, having set one off many years ago, so I'm a super weenie on slide evaluation, esp when alone. I take a multi-year view of climbing, i.e. in a snowy year I might bail off, thinking conditions might be better/leaner next year, the year after that, whatever. But it's also a lousy way to summit a lot of winter peaks. Finally, I applaud you for posting this report and thereby overcoming your stated fear of criticism, etc. Not at all easy to do. I'm still sitting on a report of a very close call I had 18 months ago, probably the closest of my climbing career, hard to revisit and share those events. So hat's off on this report. Again, glad it worked out, be careful out there.

-Tom

Well, as the previous commenters have stated, there are a lot of factors here and the green avy rose is but one of many (although I appreciate the potency of ending your report on that note). I greatly enjoy your winter TRs (your Jagged attempt remains an all-time classic), but I agree with Schralp that that slope would have turned me around pretty quickly, especially solo. Then again, I'm not goal-oriented to winter summits and I do not have a particularly high risk tolerance. Nor had I put in the work--twice--to reach the Red Gully in deep snow. I also wholly agree with Tom that reports like this are entirely worthwhile as educational tools for both you the writer and for aspiring alpinists generally, especially because TRs such as these are so difficult to write. It's easy to say "turn around" from my nice cozy chair, but being in the situation is an entirely different calculus.

I really identified with and applaud this wording:
"It's such a dumb argument to have with yourself. It's so easy when you are warm, dry, and sitting at a desk to question the decisions you made when you were cold, tired, and concerned about the snow. The only good thing to come from these self-bashing thoughts is the motivation to get back out there and try it again."
It can apply to almost any type of turn around, but MMQBing such a decision rarely is of little benefit if you're saying "I shouldn't have." Much better, as you say, to use it as motivation for next time or objective assessment.

Regardless, stay safe, don't be overconfident (you are highly skilled and stronger than your average climber, but sliding slopes don't give a sh%t about that), and keep getting at 'em. You are seeing peaks and vistas most of us can only imagine.

Joe

Thank you for writing this report. You're asking all the right questions. First of all, so glad you're ok! From the pix, looks like way more snow than when we climbed Red Gully in 2014.
I was "lured" by green ratings in the Sangres myself recently, and climbing did feel pretty safe, but maybe it was a fallacy. We did encounter wind slab issues, but it seemed manageable.
From the recent Avy refresher course - 4% of accidents happen during "green" conditions. Unlikely doesn't mean impossible.

You are so lucky!

I figured I would chime in because I see a huge red flag that would've turned me around right away. That said, I can also understand why you continued.

The number one thing that jumps out at me about this situation is the weather. If it was socked in like that and the rock was plastered with that much rime, it's obvious to me that there was a big fucking storm that hit the peak, and there's a chance that there could be quite a bit of snow accumulation. That said, rime usually only forms when it's a super wet storm. You may not get snow accumulation at lower altitude, and the snow line will likely be higher up. What you experienced was probably a soft slab. These shed after a day or two. Had that slope gotten a sun load, it probably would've slid on its own. Then again, who's to say that it didn't.

I will echo some of the sentiments of the other people that replied. Without firsthand experience with the conditions that you encountered, it's hard to say one way or another. The only thing that is reasonably concrete is that with that bad of weather, and that bad of conditions on the mountain, you should have bailed right away.

If you take away one thing from this experience, I think you should understand you're pushing a little too hard. You need good conditions to climb mountains safely. If that means that you don't climb whatever Peak this year because you have a demanding schedule, that's just the way it is. Follow good conditions, and stay out of trouble. It's as simple as that.

I would have turned around, partner or not after seeing what you saw. I would consider myself on the conservative side of risk evaluation though. Also I would have dug a pit before I left just to see what it is was like underneath. For me solo missions are for nicer days with better visibility. Do you think the visibility that day hindered your decision making at all ? Seems like it could have been a factor.

Great job on getting the summit and home safely which is what matters the most.

I'd like to say I would have turned around, but I probably would have just stood well off to the side and had Fireonthemountain go first, were he with me.

Thanks for posting it. We saw your footsteps on NE Crestone; that looked spicy indeed. Good you weren't caught up in the avy.

Cerro Torre??

Glad you safe man and way to put yourself out there although not sure whats more dangerous, the internet or the mountains.

Very glad you made it out safely. Sounds like a close call.

With the green (or even yellow) avy forecast, I probably wouldn't have turned back in the Red Gully until I saw something slide. But would have chickened out when seeing Image 37.

Would having partners result in making safer decisions? I feel like I have put myself in riskier situations when grouped with other people than when going solo. I feel somewhat hesitant to invite people on my remaining 14ers because of the non-negligible risk of life and limb.

I'm not sure it's possible to complete the Winter 14ers list without at least one near-death experience, but I could be wrong (there's not too many people I can ask). I went for an uncontrolled slide in the Red Gully when stepping on bulletproof ice and I'm sure the probable 1000' slide/fall may not have ended well (if I wasn't fairly lucky and managed to stop myself right before sliding off a decent sized ledge). And I was definitely holding my breath when crossing KC Avenue, waiting for the entire slope to slide. And I'm sure the Bells will provide a fair amount of risk...

With no dependents and a "shit happens" attitude, I would guess my risk tolerance is a bit higher than most people. I'm just hoping we don't see many people new to this sport risking themselves on the harder peaks until they have more experience under their belts.

Congrats on NE Crestone in winter,Mike .
Go to the mountains enough times and "events" will happen .The snow was telling you of instability(the shooting cracks)you moved past it and made it out alive with a story . Bet the first hug of wife and kids were good after the drive home .

Thanks everyone for your candid feedback. I don't have many people in the Springs that I can talk to about this stuff. They wouldn't know what to say. It really helps me to air it out on this site and to hear what people who have been there think.

Jaw-Dropping read and photos Mike. To those attempting to complete the 14ers in calendar winter it should be a warning to what they are signing up for and I also agree with what Tom said. The criticism is worth showing others the risk involved, fortunately it had a happy ending.

Congrats and I'm glad us mortals can read another "DAD MIKE" trip report in the future.

"As I approached my previous highpoint, the snow started to get deeper. There was 8 - 12 inches of powder snow on top of a crusty layer. Up to this point, that layer easily held my weight and gave me no concerns. Now I was starting to punch through that slab and down into the next layer of soft snow. "

I would have called it right there personally. Glad you posted this. It was a pretty amazing read. Insane pictures. Glad it had a happy conclusion.

great pics, great read. thanks for sharing

A game we play where we answer many questions like, why am I here?
If you could answer that question, would it be your final answer?
A personal endeavor only you understand.
You can always phone a friend...haaaaa!
I totally meant to bust a rhyme, hoping you continue to climb.
Okay back to work everyone! :D

Heuristic traps.
We all fall into them one time or another, and I'm glad the trap door didn't get you. Be careful Mike, and when you go out next, just remember who's waiting for you at home.
That is if Dani lets you out again!

... and down into the next layer of soft snow. A little higher up on the slope I heard that horrible whoompfing noise twice in quick succession. I looked around and noticed shooting cracks to my left and right."


*intercom: PING!* Want to get away?

Once you made it to NE Crestone, wondered "will he descend the North Ridge to Humboldt's saddle to avoid that gulley?"

You just may have saved a life. So many hikers starting to dabble in the winter game and its important they realize that the avy risks are very real. So glad this was just a close call and nothing more. Keep on kickin' butt out there.

"As I approached my previous highpoint, the snow started to get deeper. There was 8 - 12 inches of powder snow on top of a crusty layer. Up to this point, that layer easily held my weight and gave me no concerns. Now I was starting to punch through that slab and down into the next layer of soft snow."

That would be my decision rendering point. I don't condemn you though for continuing because 1) I wasn't there and I'm in a nice warm office as I type this and 2) to your point everyone has different levels of risk we're willing to accept. Aron Ralston for example triggered an avalanche on the knife edge of Capitol during his winter solo project and continued. Me the thought of doing Capitol in winter with or without partners sounds like a horrifying proposition. I look forward to the Crestones this summer, lol.

Glad you're OK and wish you the best!

Glad you are safe, Mike! It takes some courage to write a TR when you second guess your decisions. The winter 14ers are filled with many variables that can change in an instant. The bad thing is when you are so close to the summit on these winter 14ers, your risk tolerance increases because of the effort to get to that point. I had a similar situation on Pikes a few years ago one March. I was going up Little Italy and felt pretty comfortable with the snow until I set off a slow moving slide near the top. The right exit was wind loaded. It moved very slowly, but I was on top of it for a few seconds. From that point on, my risk tolerance on snow really dropped! It can happen to anybody, my friend.

I have always been a fan of yours. I get so excited when I see a trip report from you. The pictures in this TR are nothing short of amazing. You're alive, so you must have done something right. In the end, you have to do what you love doing, the things that fill your soul with satisfaction. I think you answered every question you proposed at the end in the very beginning of this report. You can only make decisions you think are good in that moment and accept certain risks, or stop climbing mountains and live with zero risk. Eh, even then, isn't living a risk in itself?

I am super glad you are okay. It sounds like cutting out of the red gully and continuing up was a good decision. If you had instead turned around you may have been caught on the way back down. You have a lot of experience and it shows. Reflection is always a good thing. It will only serve to make you a stronger mountaineer.

I usually stay away from anything that even remotely resembles Monday morning quarterbacking. But since it's here and there is a discussion, here are a few thoughts.

1- There aren't a lot of observations for the CAIC to review in the Sangres, which is why they are often marked grey for insufficient info. Sangres forecasts should be taken with a bigger grain of salt than other ranges.

2- The rating is, in my opinion, one of the least important pieces of info found in the forecast. The avalanche problems and seasonal/recent weather observations are far more important. For instance, if the danger is moderate but the primary concern is storm slabs (more typical in the PNW)- that's far more predictable and far less consequential (in general) than a moderate rating with a persistent slab problem (typical in CO).

3- Often, when the danger in CO drops to low, it is due to a long dry spell that has deteriorated any slabs to the point where there is no longer a slab. I'm not sure that was the case here- at least where you were.

Anyway, those are a few thoughts. Love the photos and TR, talk about beautiful rime ice and some of the best peaks in the state. Cheers,

Nice work. I always enjoy a nice palm sweat induced by scary 14er pics :lol: