Dec 16th, Kelso Mountain Avalanche - questions

[Mel Kel]

Hey all - sorry if this post is in the wrong place, feel free to move, I felt like it could fit in many of the topic categories.

I've got a couple questions regarding the recent avalanche on December 16th on Kelso Mountain. According to the CAIC, a pair of hikers triggered this avalanche on an east facing slope on their return from climbing Gray's peak.
1. First, does anyone know what the avalanche forecast was for that day? And if so, how do I find that information? I can't seem to find a "history" of forecasts for a specific day. This would be extremely helpful for learning.
2. Does anyone know where I can learn further details? Such as, were the hikers traveling across the slope in avalanche terrain, or were they well below avalanche terrain with a remote trigger? Knowing approximately where they crossed the slope would also be helpful for learning/future route planning in regards to the forecast that day.

These are some of my starting questions because it was not clear to me and I'm trying to get a more clear picture of the situation so that I can learn and plan routes better. If they were "far below" on the "typical/standard" trail, on a yellow/moderate day, without a forecast warning of potential triggering from below, I would like to know so that I can give myself even more of a buffer with these things. Anyway, just some thoughts and it's been rolling around in my head for a while now.

Thanks for any insight or productive conversation with this!
Here is the link to CAIC for the report if you need further details regarding the avalanche.
https://avalanche.state.co.us/report/be ... 482a79318e

[AndrewJCraigie]

Looks like they were following the standard route instead of winter route, which avoids the avy risk in that area.

Forecast that day ( you can change date at top of page):
https://avalanche.state.co.us/?date=2024-12-16

[Willy the Kid]

Looks like December 16th was a moderate danger day with wind slab and persistent slab problems.

More details:
https://avalanche.state.co.us/?lat=39.6 ... 2024-12-16

The avalanche they triggered was on an easterly slope of probably about 30-40 degrees of steepness, matching the photos in the report (which states the pin location is approximate) to some features on Caltopo, specifically the cliffy features and the windblown ramp visible in the report photos. I circled the area where it looks like it occured (breaking at ~12,150), but if it looks like I got any of this info wrong, please correct me.

It looks like they were probably following the summer trail pretty closely to trigger this avalanche. It looks like that danger is avoidable by taking a more direct route through the valley maybe 50-100 vertical feet below the summer trail.

I have never done this route, though, and I very well could be wrong about the location of the avalanche, so take all of this with a grain of salt.

[Mel Kel]

Wow, thank you so much! I had no idea that I could look at previous forecasts on the CAIC. It makes sense that you would be able to, but I had never stumbled upon this (now I feel dumb, especially because it is pretty obvious hah). This is extremely helpful, thank you!

I didn't realize that the standard summer route traveled that high, skirting along Kelso mountain (I thought it was lower in the valley). It's wild to think that if they were a mere 50-100' below (in non avalanche terrain) that this may have been avoided (but no need to thread the needle, a wide buffer is good IMO). I'm curious if others had traveled this way too and if the trail they were following was boot packed down or if it was only their tracks out and back.

Anyway, thanks so much for the insight. Learning how to backdate the forecast is super helpful with this and other questions I've had with past avalanches (although, it does appear to have the record for only the past year...).

[DaveLanders]

There have been 2 fatal accidents in prior years where people made the same mistake. You should be able to find those accident reports on the CAIC website. There have also been forum discussions about this; I don't know if those are still available or not.

[Jorts]

2 hikers and their dog died on Hoosier Pass a few years back when they undercut a dangerous but benign looking slope while walking along the summer road there. I doubt they knew they were in avalanche terrain.

Even if you don’t backcountry ski, if you do any backcountry recreation in the winter whatsoever it behooves you to educate yourself on avalanche safety.

[marcstrawser]

Haven't posted in a while, but perhaps this is the time. I climbed G/T the 14th to scout for a re-ascent of Kelso Ridge for the 21st. I would typically take the winter route up the creek, but the snow was not great; powder with a crunchy surface. Snowshoes weren't incredibly helpful at the time, but the summer route was actually boot-able, right up until this section. It was actually quite obvious that something was different through this section, but it's so short, and the terrain above so unassuming, that it basically begs one to "just get through it".

Unless you were aware this section had already been declared dangerous avalanche terrain, or were a seasoned backcountry pro, I believe you would never even question it. 100 yards ahead was the obvious trail, almost free of snow.

[Gore Girl]

Haven't posted in a while, but perhaps this is the time. I climbed G/T the 14th to scout for a re-ascent of Kelso Ridge for the 21st. I would typically take the winter route up the creek, but the snow was not great; powder with a crunchy surface. Snowshoes weren't incredibly helpful at the time, but the summer route was actually boot-able, right up until this section. It was actually quite obvious that something was different through this section, but it's so short, and the terrain above so unassuming, that it basically begs one to "just get through it".

Unless you were aware this section had already been declared dangerous avalanche terrain, or were a seasoned backcountry pro, I believe you would never even question it. 100 yards ahead was the obvious trail, almost free of snow.

Hi Marc - thanks for weighing in. Do I understand correctly that you'd taken the same path two days prior, without incident? Or - when you noticed "something was different" - did you deviate below the summer route to give the slope above a wider berth? I am curious what the forecast on the 14th might have been, but likely it wasn't much different than on the 16th.

Your final paragraph captures the insidious nature of these things, as does your comment "begs one to 'just get through it'". Reminds me of a ski tour I did in Straight Creek last year when I looked up at a particular sketchy slope and said to myself: "oh no - I don't wanna be below THIS thing right now". You never saw an old lady do a 180 so fast and scoot out of there!

[Gore Girl]

I said in my reply above: "I am curious what the forecast on the 14th might have been, but likely it wasn't much different than on the 16th."

Well, I just went and checked on that:

https://avalanche.state.co.us/?date=202 ... 6.18655625

The 14th was rated "low" at all elevations, contrary to the moderate probability that had cropped up between the 14th and the 16th.

[marcstrawser]

Let's say, proceeded extra cautiously on ascent, and almost naturally diverted lower on the way down due to the snow conditions. On a low-angled slope, punchy but firm on the way in, loose and slippery on the way out.

[Gore Girl]

Let's say, proceeded extra cautiously on ascent, and almost naturally diverted lower on the way down due to the snow conditions. On a low-angled slope, punchy but firm on the way in, loose and slippery on the way out.

Good that you were conservative. That, plus the better forecast for the 14th - likely made all the difference between your experience and that of the folks two days later.

Margins can certainly be slim!

Stay safe -

[GUTstring]

There have been 2 fatal accidents in prior years where people made the same mistake. You should be able to find those accident reports on the CAIC website. There have also been forum discussions about this; I don't know if those are still available or not.

This post came to mind: https://www.14ers.com/forum/viewtopic.p ... ilit=Kelso. I think it is the exact same avalanche path where a forum member was caught and died a decade ago. One of the members of the accident party explains how they got below the avalanche area and is quite a sobering read.