Snowpocolypse 2021

[two lunches]

Anyone willing to help me trench North Table Mountain in Golden?

if i can’t make it to golden i’ll be working on first tracks at bear creek lake.

Mt Carbon!!!
Mt Carbon.JPG

you’re welcome to join us!!

[mtngoatwithstyle]

Poor birds, they have been chirping and tweeting at 5am already here in Vail so I imagine they will be very quiet until storms move. Getting ready here to build an awesome snow cave and spend the night there sometime next week... and hopefully an igloo as well.

[peter303]

I think we have been hyped by bored weathermen.
Original it was supposed to be a epic multi-foot snowstorm beginning Thursday PM.
Now its just a day and and half medium dump starting Saturday PM.

[nyker]

Someone going to post some pictures pics of this snow?

[bmcqueen]

Someone going to post some pictures pics of this snow?

I got up early to get a jump on shoveling, but....there's no snow yet. Maybe later.

[JTOlson26]

Someone going to post some pictures pics of this snow?

I second that...if it comes!

50 and (gasp) SUNNY here in northeast Ohio today. I miss the big spring storm dumps from my childhood.

[d_baker]

No snow in Greeley yet either! Wtf

[Salient]

I think we have been hyped by bored weathermen.
Original it was supposed to be a epic multi-foot snowstorm beginning Thursday PM.
Now its just a day and and half medium dump starting Saturday PM.

I’m quite used to snow letdowns where I’m from. The 5-6 inches we got in early February was a big deal.

[BillMiddlebrook]

Grrr. This better happen, even if it's not the 4 feet we were hoping for.

[ekalina]

I wouldn't worry too much about the lack of snow thus far. This storm is a slow mover, but it will get here. I don't expect much to happen before noon today, and the initial part of the storm in the afternoon may involve a rain/snow mix (with thunder?) on the Plains.

That said, I think it will be tough for this storm to fulfill the very high expectations surrounding it. Those expectations are mostly based on earlier forecasts from the American GFS model that suggested many feet of snow (at one point I saw an estimate of up to 10 feet in the Boulder/Larimer County Foothills). However, other model forecasts, and most importantly the human forecasters, have been more measured in their predictions, and have stuck with 1–2 feet of snow in Ft. Collins/Boulder/Denver, with lesser but still healthy amounts out east in places like Greeley. In the Foothills 2–4 feet has been the going prediction. Also note that the higher mountains, including the ski areas (with the exception of Eldora), were never going to be the biggest beneficiaries of this storm.

This all still equates to a high-end (though not quite historic) storm that would substantially help the drought in Northern Colorado. But yeah, if you are expecting 3+ feet of snow down on the Plains or 5+ feet in the Foothills, keep in mind that this was never the most likely scenario, even though it generated a lot of buzz over the past week.

Here is the current storm-total snow forecast from the National Weather Service. They have been pretty consistent for several days.

StormTotalSnowWeb1.png

You can find updated forecast maps for any winter storm (including predictions for low-end and high-end amounts) here:
https://www.weather.gov/bou/winter

Disclaimer: Even though my profile says meteorologist, I am a researcher, not a forecaster, and the knowledge sets are surprisingly different. So don't take my predictions too seriously (though I think what I've said is mostly in line with forecaster expectations). I am always happy when a storm delivers an upside surprise. Not as happy when we get skunked.

[Klad24]

Relevant line from yesterday's Colorado Open Snow report:

On Friday night into Saturday morning, the storm will just be getting going. In fact, you might wake up on Saturday morning, see little or no snow outside, and question why you bought so much toilet paper to prepare for snowmageddon 2021.

[d_baker]

^^ it's misty in Greeley now. Hoping it will turn to snow!