Colorado peak questions, condition requests and other info.
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Dave B wrote: ↑Sun Jul 06, 2025 9:56 am
I'm sure there's soon to be an app or subscription we can pay for to get the same quality forecasts we used to get for free.
If the forecasts are now worse off because of the NWS cuts, there isn't a way to get better ones, as all the forecasts for the US are based off their data.
And I sure hope the forecasts aren't now worse off. This isn't just about ruining a summer's day in the mountains. The floods in Texas have taken now 59 lives.
Dave B wrote: ↑Sun Jul 06, 2025 9:56 am
But, I'm sure there's soon to be an app or subscription we can pay for to get the same quality forecasts we used to get for free.
That's the plan. Project 2025 calls for full commercialization of forecasting operations.
Dave B wrote: ↑Sun Jul 06, 2025 9:56 am
I'm sure there's soon to be an app or subscription we can pay for to get the same quality forecasts we used to get for free.
If the forecasts are now worse off because of the NWS cuts, there isn't a way to get better ones, as all the forecasts for the US are based off their data.
And I sure hope the forecasts aren't now worse off. This isn't just about ruining a summer's day in the mountains. The floods in Texas have taken now 59 lives.
You're right that daily forecasts probably won't get worse, but improvements will slow or stop. Forecast accuracy has come a long way over the past 20 years, but forecasting extreme events still has a lot of room for progress. That progress relies on research, most of it led by NOAA's Oceanic and Atmospheric Research branch, which is now facing complete defunding. NOAA is also set to lose about 20 percent of its satellite operations budget, and a major next-generation satellite program planned for 2030 has been canceled.
While the same data used for forecasting will likely still be available, the loss of staff and funding at NOAA will lead to lower data quality and analyses, which will lead to poorer forecasting capacity at NWS, and then lowered trust in their forecasts (accusations of which are already flying in TX). This will open the door for privatization of forecasting.
justiner wrote: ↑Sun Jul 06, 2025 10:23 am
If the forecasts are now worse off because of the NWS cuts, there isn't a way to get better ones, as all the forecasts for the US are based off their data.
This is what most people don’t realize. Ever notice how all the news stations, wunderground, accuweather, windy, etc. change their forecasts every 6 hours? It’s because the NWS just updated theirs. It’s especially noticeable during heavy snow or rain events.
I like to use tropicaltidbits.com to view the GFS and Euro models, sometimes as they are running. Gives me at least an idea of general trend, since they load the older models too going back about a week. Since the mountains cause microclimates I focus more on general moisture in the area than anything else
