preview keyhole to summit route conditions on Longs Peak from RMNP

[polaris8030]

visiting RMNP on 6/25 and want to try ascent of Longs Pk via keyhole route on 6/26. On nps.gov the route (5/21) looks pretty snowed in and trip reports on this site (latest ones are from 6/5) show plenty of snowpack. For a non-mountaineering person like myself, traversing the narrows with deep snow is a huge no-no. So the thought is to scope out the route past the keyhole to the summit from some vantage points (preferably ones that you can just pull off the road) in RMNP on the 25th, talk to the park rangers and then make the call. From the map, the road between glacier lake and bear lake seems like it could offer vantage points. Feedback appreciated.

thanks
-Patrick

[justiner]

The best vantage point is on one the peaks on the Continental Divide like Powell Peak. There's not a road there. Conditions Reports on this site would be better.

1534790377941.jpg (101.14 KiB) Viewed 1460 times

There's more snow on the route now than I've ever seen. You may want to seriously consider a Plan B.

[pvnisher]

You may want to seriously consider a Plan B.

And if levonorgestrel doesn't work, maybe even an alternate climbing route.

[daway8]

Short answer: No.

Even when on the trail you won't have any idea what it's going to be like until you top out on the Trough. That's why it took me two trips to do it, coming back the second time with more gear and more nerves.

Based on what I saw up there, and how there was MORE snow coming after I left, I would put the odds of that route being dry enough for your liking on 6/26 at less than 5%.

There is another 2-4 inches of snow forecast for Longs on Monday. Temps are dropping below freezing at night and staying in the 30s during the day for the next several days. With weather like that, the snow on the Narrows is going nowhere fast.

[peter303]

(1) The rangers pictures are from 5/19, three weeks ago.

My ruleof thumb is if you can still see snow on Meeker-Longs from a front range city, then there is still some ice and snow on the classic Longs hike.

[Scott P]

June 25 is at least a month too early for a "non-mountaineering person". You should be proficient using an ice axe for June ascents of Longs.

[polaris8030]

thanks all for your replies.
nps has posted an update (https://www.nps.gov/romo/planyourvisit/ ... report.htm) .. it's clear to me that longs peak will be done some other time in the future

-S

[jfm3]

Man that is absolutely caked. The picture from the Trough shows all the avalanche debris from the cliffs above. I'm planning to climb Longs sometime this month and I was worried the Homestretch would be down to bare rock (somewhat awkward in mountaineering boots). Not gonna be a problem!

[espressoself]

Latest Sentinel imagery (6/10) has a nice clear picture of the backside of Longs. This is the false color (green) version which shows snow in aqua/blue with the route overlaid on top. Very snowy indeed!

2023-06-12 092806.png (1.28 MiB) Viewed 944 times

Here is the regular imagery with just the route shown in red:

2023-06-12 093051.png (662.89 KiB) Viewed 944 times

[NovaDevi25]

Last year it went "snow-free" the last week of June and that was less snowfall than this year. I'm heading out July 10-15th, hoping we'll get lucky and have the route melted out enough for safe travel without more advanced equipment but... Idk. Fingers crossed. Chances of the majority of that being gone seem low.

[espressoself]

Last year it went "snow-free" the last week of June and that was less snowfall than this year. I'm heading out July 10-15th, hoping we'll get lucky and have the route melted out enough for safe travel without more advanced equipment but... Idk. Fingers crossed. Chances of the majority of that being gone seem low.

In case you are interested, here is a link to NOAA's long range forecasts for the next few weeks: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

2023-06-12 104834.png (296.52 KiB) Viewed 885 times

2023-06-12 104853.png (293.26 KiB) Viewed 885 times

2023-06-12 104759.png (239.13 KiB) Viewed 885 times

[NovaDevi25]

Last year it went "snow-free" the last week of June and that was less snowfall than this year. I'm heading out July 10-15th, hoping we'll get lucky and have the route melted out enough for safe travel without more advanced equipment but... Idk. Fingers crossed. Chances of the majority of that being gone seem low.

In case you are interested, here is a link to NOAA's long range forecasts for the next few weeks: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

2023-06-12 104834.png
2023-06-12 104853.png
2023-06-12 104759.png

Thank you. Looks a lot like "maybe, maybe not" kinds of chances. Not a whole lot I can do other than hope unless someone has a really long extension cord and we can start taking hair dryers up there and blowing heat on the Keyhole and Loft!