Climbing Decisions and Risk Assessment

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nyker
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Climbing Decisions and Risk Assessment

Post by nyker »

Given the recent thread on Capitol digressing as it has, but with many folks wanting to comment on and address
the background matter I figured I'd start another thread here out of respect for the climber who passed and for folks to feel free
to post comments on and debate the broader topics here.

* Solo vs partner vs. group
* in-state vs out of state
* SAR communication
* Best Practices
* Statistics
* Risk assessment
- or whatever other metric you want to add
Last edited by nyker on Fri Aug 06, 2021 12:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Climbing Decisions and Risk Assessment

Post by cottonmountaineering »

dont try to climb class 3/4/5 during a flash flood warning or after heavy precip
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Re: Climbing Decisions and Risk Assessment

Post by HikerGuy »

cottonmountaineering wrote: Thu Aug 05, 2021 9:05 pm dont try to climb class 3/4/5 during a flash flood warning or after heavy precip
That would fall under risk assessment which is the number one factor.

* Solo vs partner vs. group does not matter, each has its advantages and disadvantages.
* In-state vs. out-of-state does not matter, skill level and experience is likely distributed the same across each group.
* SAR communication does not factor in decision making or at least it shouldn't. I don't take more risk just because I carry an inReach.
* Statistics are meaningless in internet discussions.
* Best practices, they come with experience. But experience comes with more exposure to risk, see risk assessment.
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Re: Climbing Decisions and Risk Assessment

Post by Snow_Dog_frassati »

This is such a broad topic it's probably opening up a lot of nasty discussion - but c'est la vie.

I think about it like this. If you get in a car, there is a chance you die in a car crash. If you go playing in the mountains, there's a chance that you die in the mountains. Certain practices are definitely helpful but I don't know how much these discussions really lead to any dramatic revelations of "how not to die." We have lost legends like Steve Gladbach in our mountains and we have lost out of state "newbies". A lot of times there's a "mistake" but a lot of times statistics just catch up to you. We are imperfect beings that slip, fall, trigger avalanches, get summit fever, kick rocks and make plain weird choices. We can keep adding things to our mental list of "stuff not to do" but every situation is so different there are so many ways to die it doesn't really equate to full protection.

I do always welcome negative feedback that doesn't kill me however. Ie the recent thread about backpacking in the rain. That's negative feedback but OP was able to learn from it. Unfortunately sometimes we get negative feedback and we don't survive it. Like when you ski tha chute you were positive wasn't going to rip - You don't get a second chance a lot of times to learn from your mistake. If you do, treasure it.

Some of the most valuable times I have had in the mountains are the close calls. Times when I look back and say "I almost just saw someone die, time to reevaluate".

I think those are an absolute gift and we should do what we can with them.

We should absolutely be active learners. The climbers who I respect most are the ones who understand how small they are - they are often students of what can go wrong. We can at least understand the risk and know what we are getting into. If you're going to ski steeps in considerable avy danger, At least have a full understanding of what that means and take responsibility for it. It's important to realize my opinion that knowing the risk doesn't make you automatically safe, you have to change your game plan based on that knowledge If you actually want to be safer. The times when I've had close calls are times when I hadn't changed my game plan.

EMT, WFR and WFA certs all help no doubt, but don't make us immune. We can define our limits and only climb with people we trust. We can try to develop any eye for dangerous situations - but still in the end sometimes s**t happens. To be fully honest if I didn't come home I'd hope my loved ones would take comfort in the fact that I died doing the thing that I loved most.
"A good decision yesterday doesn't absolve me from a bad decision today"
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Re: Climbing Decisions and Risk Assessment

Post by Salient »

As for in state vs out of state for the most part I’ve seen in state climbers dying more often. People in the Capitol thread brought up the same point as well.
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Re: Climbing Decisions and Risk Assessment

Post by RyGuy »

cottonmountaineering wrote: Thu Aug 05, 2021 9:05 pm dont try to climb class 3/4/5 during a flash flood warning or after heavy precip
This one has always blown my mind. So many people don't understand heavy rain loosens rock and that is NEVER something you want.
Then stuff like this has happened as well:
CrestoneNeedleAccident.png
CrestoneNeedleAccident.png (369.21 KiB) Viewed 6618 times
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Re: Climbing Decisions and Risk Assessment

Post by painless4u2 »

The argument that out of state hikers are more vulnerable to ignoring weather due to time constraints or summit fever when backpacking overnight haven't done much backpacking themselves. Weather happens once out there and doesn't necessarily require a mandatory turn around. And where were the naysayers when Andrew Hamilton immediately encountered bad weather on his centennial quest? Is he somehow immune simply because he resides in Denver?
Bad decisions often make good stories.

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Re: Climbing Decisions and Risk Assessment

Post by Dave B »

CO residents probably the vast majority of folks in the mountains during the summer, given that most fatalities in the mountains are accidents it only makes sense that the majority of CO climbing accidents would be CO residents. Inexperience, bravado, and stupidity can only do so much to outpace the sheer number of Coloradoans in the mountains.

Nonetheless, Texans are still the worst. In every conceivable facet of existence.
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Re: Climbing Decisions and Risk Assessment

Post by rperth »

painless4u2 wrote: Fri Aug 06, 2021 8:36 am The argument that out of state hikers are more vulnerable to ignoring weather due to time constraints or summit fever when backpacking overnight haven't done much backpacking themselves. Weather happens once out there and doesn't necessarily require a mandatory turn around. And where were the naysayers when Andrew Hamilton immediately encountered bad weather on his centennial quest? Is he somehow immune simply because he resides in Denver?
Yes, excuses are always made for those who live here, are frequent posters and are considered "experienced". RYGuy, had to go back 11 years to find an article to prove a point. As for me, I will never complete all the 14ers. 40 plus is it for me. I am too freaked out with extreme exposure. I know my limits and my comfort zone. I watch the weather closely, and never hesitate to turn around. However as a resident of Colorado I know I can try again anytime. I suppose out of towners may be more inclined to "go for it" because they may not ever get back. That's my 2 cents.

Backcountry skiers triggering avalanches is also an issue.
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Re: Climbing Decisions and Risk Assessment

Post by nyker »

RyGuy wrote: Fri Aug 06, 2021 7:47 am
cottonmountaineering wrote: Thu Aug 05, 2021 9:05 pm dont try to climb class 3/4/5 during a flash flood warning or after heavy precip
This one has always blown my mind. So many people don't understand heavy rain loosens rock and that is NEVER something you want.
Then stuff like this has happened as well: CrestoneNeedleAccident.png
The power of rainfall is really amazing, especially when concentrated/funneled into a smaller area. The one time I witnessed a flash flood was driving up 395 from LA to Lone Pine, CA before attempting Whitney. Somewhere around 10mi south of town a flood had come roaring down the high country, 300-400ft wide from the morning's heavy rains and wiped out about 300ft of paved highway, knocking a tractor trailer over and 3-4 other cars that were in its way. It gouged out the land for ~10+miles across to the road and beyond. I wouldn't have wanted to be anywhere near that higher up without being able to get out of it way. I slept in the desert that night as no other roads were available until it was cleared.
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Re: Climbing Decisions and Risk Assessment

Post by madbuck »

nyker wrote: Thu Aug 05, 2021 8:55 pm
* Solo vs partner vs. group
* in-state vs out of state
Just here making sure Bayes' theorem is used appropriately...
Dave B wrote: Fri Aug 06, 2021 8:51 am CO residents probably the vast majority of folks in the mountains during the summer....it only makes sense that the majority of CO climbing accidents would be CO residents.
Feeling better after Dave's post.

-------
I think these issues are useful in your own assessment, but I'm not so sure there are obvious or major trends that haven't been already discovered. I would like to see gross generalizations like "never hike solo" or "well, they were from out of state" or whatever go away without the rest of the context: these things factor in together to create an overall individualized picture, and context matters.
It reminds me of general lightning statistics: the denominator is different when your hair is sticking up and your poles are buzzing.
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