Avalanche San Juans- The Nose

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SkaredShtles
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Re: Avalanche San Juans- The Nose

Post by SkaredShtles »

Crap. :(
avalanche-east_vail_Feb21.jpg
avalanche-east_vail_Feb21.jpg (209.82 KiB) Viewed 4534 times
ker0uac
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Re: Avalanche San Juans- The Nose

Post by ker0uac »

d_baker wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:36 pm
ker0uac wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:33 pm
cottonmountaineering wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:26 pm but yes, ski resorts use explosives in targeted areas to make them slide
Right, but I was wondering if it would help our current scenario, since it results from multiple deep weak layers dating back to late Fall.
Education & avoidance is better.
Are you suggesting blasting all BC areas in the state!? That's a lot of dynamite, or whatever explosive they use.
no it was just a thought experiment
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Re: Avalanche San Juans- The Nose

Post by k_fergie »

ker0uac wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:23 pm Does an avalanche due to weak snowpack make a slope safer? Though not practical, one solution to address CO weak snowpack is to safely trigger massive avalanches everywhere? That way, future snow can accumulate on top of stable layers? Just asking out of intellectual curiosity.
But ski resorts and CDOT repeatedly blast avalanche areas and get results after every major loading event. Its not just a one-and-done fix the weak layer and you're good to go, unfortunately. To do this in the backcountry would be impossible, and may even lead to more accidents due to the assumption that it is safe to send because its controlled. Not to mention the liability of controlling hundreds of thousands of acres with no ability to close terrain. I could keep going, but its better to accept the risk and base decision off of knowing the consequences of what can happen when things go wrong
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Re: Avalanche San Juans- The Nose

Post by XterraRob »

ker0uac wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:23 pm Does an avalanche due to weak snowpack make a slope safer? Though not practical, one solution to address CO weak snowpack is to safely trigger massive avalanches everywhere? That way, future snow can accumulate on top of stable layers? Just asking out of intellectual curiosity.
That's what Dr. K does with his Rock-down-a-Couloir avalanche mitigation strategy.
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Re: Avalanche San Juans- The Nose

Post by gb »

ker0uac wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:23 pm Does an avalanche due to weak snowpack make a slope safer? Though not practical, one solution to address CO weak snowpack is to safely trigger massive avalanches everywhere? That way, future snow can accumulate on top of stable layers? Just asking out of intellectual curiosity.
Immediately after a slide, yes, it's often safe.

As for that slope being safe for the rest of the year? No, in fact it's usually the opposite. Thin snow= weak snow. So after a slide, the snowpack will generally be thin and will once again grow weak, resulting in what is termed "repeater slides". There are several places in my local backcountry that I've seen slide at least 3 times so far this season.
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Re: Avalanche San Juans- The Nose

Post by aleugers »

SkaredShtles wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:56 pm Crap. :(

avalanche-east_vail_Feb21.jpg
Wow that’s big. I saw the Sherriff and SAR On the way home from Vail. Looks like another fatality. The snow was great but it’s not surprising the other side of the rope would slide on a day like today.

https://denver.cbslocal.com/2021/02/04/ ... SHBJMFkxNA..
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Re: Avalanche San Juans- The Nose

Post by pvnisher »

I remember seeing a bunch of big funnels and massive pipes in the Alps.
They use propane burst, like a potato cannon or ground burst simulators some of you might be familiar with, to keep slide areas along the highway safe.
It's a big installation, not for backcountry, but I assume they've got radio receivers so they can just set them off from time to time.
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SkaredShtles
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Re: Avalanche San Juans- The Nose

Post by SkaredShtles »

pvnisher wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:00 am I remember seeing a bunch of big funnels and massive pipes in the Alps.
They use propane burst, like a potato cannon or ground burst simulators some of you might be familiar with, to keep slide areas along the highway safe.
It's a big installation, not for backcountry, but I assume they've got radio receivers so they can just set them off from time to time.
They also have those here protecting Hwy 40 on Berthoud Pass, Hwy 6 on Loveland Pass, and I-70 around the tunnel.
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Re: Avalanche San Juans- The Nose

Post by Barnold41 »

Our snowpack is telling us to stay away and yet we continue to go. I know backcountry powder is tempting, but please be smart and safe. This week has been emotionally exhausting.
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Re: Avalanche San Juans- The Nose

Post by Jorts »

Carl_Healy wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 12:06 pm I just took AIARE I and thought that would help in the chance myself or my companions were to be buried, but those photos are a bit eye opening.
Even if there were 5 companions carrying probes and shovels I don't think they'd be able to get to anyone buried that deep in time to save them...
I think it was briefly mentioned earlier this season before we had any snow but it's more relevant now than ever - CAIC's recent study about the experience level of who is involved in avalanche incidents is telling. It's a bell curve.

Beginners tend to either avoid avalanche terrain entirely or defer to a more experienced person. They're often extremely paranoid and question every slope on every aspect as suspect.

With a little experience and an avy course or two, backcountry users build confidence. They can manage terrain and make judgement calls. But that growing confidence leads to reduced margins and positive feedback loops that contribute to increased confidence and affirm decision making even if those positive outcomes have as much to do with luck as skill. Intermediate-advanced users think if something does go wrong, they can manage it with companion rescue skills.

True avalanche experts understand the law of averages. And the destructive power of avalanches. They realize that even if they could ski a slope 999 times out of 1000 without it sliding, that is not sufficient for reaching old age while skiing 100+ backcountry days every winter. They are not lulled into complacency and overconfidence by positive feedback loops. And they realize they cannot outsmart the snowpack and terrain so they leave wider margins knowing their snowpack assessments lack 100% certainty. Even with justified confidence that a slope will not slide, they still consider what layer would fail, how deeply it would break, and what terrain traps exist if it did.

I'm not an authority on human behavior. This is just my educated guess.

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curt86iroc
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Re: Avalanche San Juans- The Nose

Post by curt86iroc »

This has been an absolutely horrible weak for avalanche fatalities in the US. Aside from CO, people have been killed in NH, CA and UT. This is the single worst weak for avalanche fatalities in (my) recent memory (not counting sheep creek)...

https://www.necn.com/news/local/backcou ... e/2398534/

https://www.shastaavalanche.org/avalanc ... ality#/all

https://utahavalanchecenter.org/avalanche/58594
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Re: Avalanche San Juans- The Nose

Post by TomPierce »

Jorts wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:38 am True avalanche experts understand the law of averages. And the destructive power of avalanches. They realize that even if they could ski a slope 999 times out of 1000 without it sliding, that is not sufficient for reaching old age while skiing 100+ backcountry days every winter. They are not lulled into complacency and overconfidence by positive feedback loops. And they realize they cannot outsmart the snowpack and terrain so they leave wider margins knowing their snowpack assessments lack 100% certainty. Even with justified confidence that a slope will not slide, they still consider what layer would fail, how deeply it would break, and what terrain traps exist if it did.
I agree with this. I recall when I took avalanche training in the pre-AIARE days that our instructor shared an anecdote: The dude who wrote either Snow Sense or The ABC's avalanche book (can't remember which one) had his class analyze a slope for most of a day, then it was pronounced probably safe for travel. That same day it slid. Not sure if that's true or an urban myth, but when delivered in class it was a bit jarring.

I try to adopt a similar mindset when tech climbing, always trying to double check knots, etc. even though I've probably tied in way over a thousand times. Play with snakes long enough, a bite is inevitable, regardless of your skill level.

And condolences to the families and friends of those who died. A rough snow season, for sure.

-Tom
Last edited by TomPierce on Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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