Where did the monsoon go?

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binxhameen
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Re: Where did the monsoon go?

Post by binxhameen »

This is a fascinating thread, whose participants are all mountain climbing aficionados; I hope we can at least agree on the fact that, regardless of to what extent we believe human activity is contributing to climate change, that we owe it to the generations that will follow us, and that we have a moral obligation, to devote whatever resources are necessary to understand to the best of our abilities, the root causes of the situation, and to understand to what extent, if any, changes in our consumption and other patterns, will have a favorable impact. If not, we truly are a pathetic, self-interested lot.
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Dave B
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Re: Where did the monsoon go?

Post by Dave B »

Rollie Free wrote: Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:48 pm
Maybe you want to 'educate' this crowd. The 'appeal to authority' argument is generally considered fallacious.

https://www.ucsusa.org/our-work/global- ... scienceGhh
You might want to spend a little more time understanding what an appeal to authority is and when it is and isn't a logical fallacy.

In this case, when every major scientific organization and even the US Military has publicly identified human-caused climate change as a legitimate threat, it is not an appeal to authority fallacy. It is the collective opinion and agreement of experts and should be weighted heavily.

Now, compare that to the video by Mr. Bias McCherryPick that Kevin Baker posted and think long and hard about which argument is a fallacy.

Sadly, I think I already know which one you'll believe and it's why I fear for the future of this country.
Make wilderness less accessible.
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disentangled
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Re: Where did the monsoon go?

Post by disentangled »

Dave B wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:30 am [
In this case, when every major scientific organization and even the US Military has publicly identified human-caused climate change as a legitimate threat, it is not an appeal to authority fallacy. It is the collective opinion and agreement of experts and should be weighted heavily.
the problem for scientists is that there are a lot of people who don't accept the paradigm in which they are experts. so, in the minds of those who do not accept science as a means to understand the world, the collective agreement of experts is pointless. scientists might want to find a different avenue to convince.
timisimaginary
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Re: Where did the monsoon go?

Post by timisimaginary »

Scary_Canary wrote: Wed Aug 21, 2019 1:52 pm
timisimaginary wrote: Wed Aug 21, 2019 1:27 pm the earth is a pizza, global warming is caused by the pizza going into the oven, and the moon is made of delicious cheese which will be sprinkled all over us once we're done baking.
Are you implying.... The earth is flat? :lol:
i would never imply such a thing. i don't believe in body-shaming.
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Re: Where did the monsoon go?

Post by timisimaginary »

FireOnTheMountain wrote: Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:32 pm
TomPierce wrote: Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:28 pmI can't believe I'm even posting this, I try to avoid political-zealotry-disguised-as-rational-debate posts. But c'mon...there's nothing to global warning? Really? Ugh...
Fret not Tom, I hear it from non believers of climate change all the time...it's cool, the Earth will correct itself and it goes through phases.
the earth WILL correct itself... step one will be getting rid of all us humans. once that's done, it should only take a couple hundred million years or so for things to get back to normal. that's like a short nap for the earth.
"The decay and disintegration of this culture is astonishingly amusing if you're emotionally detached from it." - George Carlin
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Rollie Free
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Re: Where did the monsoon go?

Post by Rollie Free »

Dave B wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:30 am
Rollie Free wrote: Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:48 pm
Maybe you want to 'educate' this crowd. The 'appeal to authority' argument is generally considered fallacious.

https://www.ucsusa.org/our-work/global- ... scienceGhh
You might want to spend a little more time understanding what an appeal to authority is and when it is and isn't a logical fallacy.

In this case, when every major scientific organization and even the US Military has publicly identified human-caused climate change as a legitimate threat, it is not an appeal to authority fallacy. It is the collective opinion and agreement of experts and should be weighted heavily.

Now, compare that to the video by Mr. Bias McCherryPick that Kevin Baker posted and think long and hard about which argument is a fallacy.

Sadly, I think I already know which one you'll believe and it's why I fear for the future of this country.
Re-read. The poster's argument is that I don't know what I am talking about and I need to take this class. That's an appeal to authority. He didn't argue anything I said, only that I wasn't educated enough to have an opinion. That's fallacious.
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Re: Where did the monsoon go?

Post by nunns »

shelly+ wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:09 am
Dave B wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:30 am [
In this case, when every major scientific organization and even the US Military has publicly identified human-caused climate change as a legitimate threat, it is not an appeal to authority fallacy. It is the collective opinion and agreement of experts and should be weighted heavily.
the problem for scientists is that there are a lot of people who don't accept the paradigm in which they are experts. so, in the minds of those who do not accept science as a means to understand the world, the collective agreement of experts is pointless. scientists might want to find a different avenue to convince.
Just to take the other side of the argument:
There is a book written in the 1970s (?) by Thomas Kuhn called The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. This book basically says that in any era in a field of science, there is a predominant paradigm. Scientists who are instructed in that paradigm usually adopt it, and then spend their entire careers finding data to fit that paradigm. Paradigm shifts occur not when those scientists change paradigms, but rather when they die and new scientists ascend to power that have a different paradigm.
Very interesting way to look at science.

Sean Nunn
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12ersRule
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Re: Where did the monsoon go?

Post by 12ersRule »

nunns wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:21 am Just to take the other side of the argument:
There is a book written in the 1970s (?) by Thomas Kuhn called The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. This book basically says that in any era in a field of science, there is a predominant paradigm. Scientists who are instructed in that paradigm usually adopt it, and then spend their entire careers finding data to fit that paradigm. Paradigm shifts occur not when those scientists change paradigms, but rather when they die and new scientists ascend to power that have a different paradigm.
Very interesting way to look at science.

Sean Nunn
So the infrastructure of the scientific community is identical to that of a church then?

:-k
mcmanusj
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Re: Where did the monsoon go?

Post by mcmanusj »

12ersRule wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:27 am
nunns wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:21 am Just to take the other side of the argument:
There is a book written in the 1970s (?) by Thomas Kuhn called The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. This book basically says that in any era in a field of science, there is a predominant paradigm. Scientists who are instructed in that paradigm usually adopt it, and then spend their entire careers finding data to fit that paradigm. Paradigm shifts occur not when those scientists change paradigms, but rather when they die and new scientists ascend to power that have a different paradigm.
Very interesting way to look at science.

Sean Nunn
So the infrastructure of the scientific community is identical to that of a church then?

:-k
Probably not - the scientific community never covered up the systematic molestation of hundreds of young children.
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DeTour
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Re: Where did the monsoon go?

Post by DeTour »

I wish all you geniuses would stop arguing climate change and religion, and just tell me if it’s going to rain next week when I’m in Kilpacker Basin.
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jerseybrian
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Re: Where did the monsoon go?

Post by jerseybrian »

Rollie Free wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:02 am

Re-read. The poster's argument is that I don't know what I am talking about and I need to take this class. That's an appeal to authority. He didn't argue anything I said, only that I wasn't educated enough to have an opinion. That's fallacious.
Not you in particular. Although you mentioned it as a global warming debate and not climate change. Something that's misunderstood frequently because people don't know the difference. It's not an appeal to authority because the history of the earth tells us the changes it has gone through. Entirely relevant to the argument. I'm saying as a whole education is lacking in the subject.
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TomPierce
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Re: Where did the monsoon go?

Post by TomPierce »

nunns wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:21 am
shelly+ wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:09 am
Dave B wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:30 am [
In this case, when every major scientific organization and even the US Military has publicly identified human-caused climate change as a legitimate threat, it is not an appeal to authority fallacy. It is the collective opinion and agreement of experts and should be weighted heavily.
the problem for scientists is that there are a lot of people who don't accept the paradigm in which they are experts. so, in the minds of those who do not accept science as a means to understand the world, the collective agreement of experts is pointless. scientists might want to find a different avenue to convince.
Just to take the other side of the argument:
There is a book written in the 1970s (?) by Thomas Kuhn called The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. This book basically says that in any era in a field of science, there is a predominant paradigm. Scientists who are instructed in that paradigm usually adopt it, and then spend their entire careers finding data to fit that paradigm. Paradigm shifts occur not when those scientists change paradigms, but rather when they die and new scientists ascend to power that have a different paradigm.
Very interesting way to look at science.

Sean Nunn
Hmm...Sean, I respectfully believe you might be misstating the premise of Kuhn's work (and yes, I've read the book). The classic example of a Kuhnian paradigm shift is the Earth-centric model of the cosmos. That paradigm shifted, in large part, due to the work of Kepler and Copernicus, who came forward and presented new evidence to the contrary, evidence based on the improvement of telescope technology pioneered by the Dutch (Huygens, specifically). Another more recent example of a paradigm shift is Einstein's work on cosmology, e.g. the bendable nature of light by gravity, etc. His work was eventually supported by physical, observable evidence. To suggest that scientists follow an existing paradigm by rote, with no critical analysis, and that such paradigms change only when the adherents die off, well...I respectfully dissent.

PS: Is anyone going to rebut the evidence in the link posted by rijaca? 800,000 years of physical data (ice cores). Seems like some people are ignoring the most compelling evidence (and not directing that at you, Sean). Just my opinion.
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