Avalanche Danger on 14er Routes

[lostathiker]

Would like to find 14ers to try some climbing in snow conditions, but can't find anything on avalanche risk of the different routes. Is there any list of avalanche danger by peak, or avalanche free routes? Otherwise, how do you evaluate this danger?

[justiner]

This is not bad

https://www.summitpost.org/colorado-14e ... ter/337648

Just remember any slope can slide, the responsibility to not die is still yours.

[Wildernessjane]

Check out both the Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) and Utah Avalanche Center websites (in contrast to other areas such as PNW, for example, Utah has similar snowpack to Colorado). Both have links to instructional videos focused on avalanche awareness/terrain avoidance. Also, read the CAIC report before you venture out and seriously consider taking an in-person class when offered again if you plan on venturing out much in winter/spring. That link shared above is also a great resource. In general, sticking to ridges is a safer bet if you don’t have the experience or training to recognize avalanche terrain or how to evaluate snow conditions.

Links to instructional videos:
https://learn.kbyg.org/?caic
https://utahavalanchecenter.org/education/videos

CAIC Reports: https://www.avalanche.state.co.us/

[Jorts]

Otherwise, how do you evaluate this danger?

If it's completely scoured - you're good.
If it's under 30 degrees (including overhead) - you're good.

Besides that, you'll need more than responses in a mountaineering forum. Avy risk evaluation comes with a little bit of classroom theory and a lot of experience.

[LetsGoMets]

Otherwise, how do you evaluate this danger?

If it's under 30 degrees (including overhead) - you're good.

I mean, not accurate.

[Jorts]

You’re right, theoretically slides do occur below 30 deg. 99.9999% of the time though… they don’t. 30 is the fast, hard rule of thumb.

If I’m wrong, find the last accident in Colorado that occurred on a slope under 30 deg. That includes the overhead terrain. Not something triggered from beneath terrain over 30.

[LetsGoMets]

You’re right, theoretically slides do occur below 30 deg. 99.9999% of the time though… they don’t. 30 is the fast, hard rule of thumb.

If I’m wrong, find the last accident in Colorado that occurred on a slope under 30 deg. That includes the overhead terrain. Not something triggered from beneath terrain over 30.

Literally any avy course and trusted literature resource says you are wrong. From Snow Sense: "Your weight and motion can trigger an avalanche even if you are on low angle slopes or on flats as long as this terrain is connected to a slope of roughly 25 degrees and sufficient instability exists." Slab avalanches in particular with cold snow and instability can creep into the 25 degree area.

There is so much more than just making sure your slope angle is under 30 degrees. That kind of blanket incorrect thinking can get inexperienced people hurt. Is the "sweet spot" over 30 degrees? Yup, but that doesn't preclude that you're wrong on your statement and percentages and all I'm saying is telling an inexperienced person on a forum "under 30 and your good!" is probably not the best thing.

[Jorts]

Literally any avy course and trusted literature resource says you are wrong. From Snow Sense: "Your weight and motion can trigger an avalanche even if you are on low angle slopes or on flats as long as this terrain is connected to a slope of roughly 25 degrees and sufficient instability exists." Slab avalanches in particular with cold snow and instability can creep into the 25 degree area.

There is so much more than just making sure your slope angle is under 30 degrees. That kind of blanket incorrect thinking can get inexperienced people hurt. Is the "sweet spot" over 30 degrees? Yup, but that doesn't preclude that you're wrong on your statement and percentages and all I'm saying is telling an inexperienced person on a forum "under 30 and your good!" is probably not the best thing.

I appreciate your passion and authority. But I’m not wrong. Read any Colorado avy forecast. Invariably they read, “keep it under 30 deg”.

Again, show me one single avalanche accident that occurred under 30 deg. I’m speaking from experience. Not from books. And I concede, in the most optimal, rarest conditions, under 30 is possible. BUT THATS THE RAREST OF EXCEPTIONS TO THE RULE.

Keep it under 30 and you’re good.

[Jorts]

https://snowbrains.com/backcountry-skii ... -it-means/

[LetsGoMets]

Literally any avy course and trusted literature resource says you are wrong. From Snow Sense: "Your weight and motion can trigger an avalanche even if you are on low angle slopes or on flats as long as this terrain is connected to a slope of roughly 25 degrees and sufficient instability exists." Slab avalanches in particular with cold snow and instability can creep into the 25 degree area.

There is so much more than just making sure your slope angle is under 30 degrees. That kind of blanket incorrect thinking can get inexperienced people hurt. Is the "sweet spot" over 30 degrees? Yup, but that doesn't preclude that you're wrong on your statement and percentages and all I'm saying is telling an inexperienced person on a forum "under 30 and your good!" is probably not the best thing.

I appreciate your passion and authority. But I’m not wrong. Read any Colorado avy forecast. Invariably they read, “keep it under 30 deg”.

Again, show me one single avalanche accident that occurred under 30 deg. I’m speaking from experience. Not from books. And I concede, in the most optimal, rarest conditions, under 30 is possible. BUT THATS THE RAREST OF EXCEPTIONS TO THE RULE.

Keep it under 30 and you’re good.

I’m not arguing that’s it’s less likely to have have consequences. I’m pointing out for other people not super familiar with this topic that your initial blanket statement advice is just wrong, even according to the article you referenced. But hey, books are dumb and your RL experience is all that matters.

[Aphelion]

...
I’m not arguing that’s it’s less likely to have have consequences. I’m pointing out for other people not super familiar with this topic that your initial blanket statement advice is just wrong, even according to the article you referenced. But hey, books are dumb and your RL experience is all that matters.

But again, the number of avalanches that trigger at <30 degree is minimal, and we are also dealing with people who are not putting in even enough work to use google (the Summitpost page listing all 14ers by avy danger, with suggested routes, is on the first page of a search for "Avalanche Danger on 14er Routes"). You've read Snow Sense, there's a graph in there detailing the frequency of a slab slide by angle, and the 25-30* portion is minuscule. This is like quibbling about whether we should make the rule of thumb "be off the summit by noon" vs "be off the summit by 1130." They're both rough approximations for those who don't care enough to know better, and they're functionally interchangeable.

[mgl45]

Otherwise, how do you evaluate this danger?

If it's completely scoured - you're good.
If it's under 30 degrees (including overhead) - you're good.

Besides that, you'll need more than responses in a mountaineering forum. Avy risk evaluation comes with a little bit of classroom theory and a lot of experience.

Newbie here - what does scoured mean in this context? Not having much luck googling the term in a mountaineering context.

Thanks.