Missing Hiker Capitol Peak 7/31

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nunns
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Re: Missing Hiker Capitol Peak 7/31

Post by nunns »

CORed wrote: Thu Aug 05, 2021 12:55 pm
Rollie Free wrote: Thu Aug 05, 2021 10:19 am I like to revert to 'what does the data tell you'.

What is the ratio of out of state climbers to out of state climber fatalities? Someones perception may be accurate or not.
Besides which, living out of state does not necessarily mean inexperienced or not acclimated to altitude, nor does living in Colorado necessarily mean the opposite.
No, but it does speak to the POSSIBILITY of someone going ahead with a climb that they might otherwise not pursue if they knew they could easily give it a shot a week later. I am not saying this was true of the hiker on Capitol. But personally I know I am more likely to "take a shot" at a peak in slightly iffy weather if it is going to be my only shot for an entire year. I realize after last week how important it is to critically evaluate risk independent of this.

Sean Nunn
"Thy righteousness is like the great mountains." --Psalms 36:6
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Candace66
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Re: Missing Hiker Capitol Peak 7/31

Post by Candace66 »

Condolences to the loved ones of the fallen climber. :(

GeezerClimber wrote: Wed Aug 04, 2021 9:04 pm Very sad all around. In my decades of climbing in CO, I have observed three common factors in fatalities: 1. climbing alone 2. out of state climber and 3. bad weather. Looks like Kelly may have had all three working against him.

Dave
My years of participating in and observing CO climbing and peakbagging doesn't support those conclusions at all.

Focusing on Capitol Peak in particular, 2000-2017, I see a lot of CO hometowns listed here, as well as people climbing with one or more partners (weather isn't listed): https://www.aspentimes.com/news/capitol ... ive-years/

Also, climbing with others does not guarantee your safety. Risk factors of groups include:
1. False sense of "safety in numbers" (mentioned earlier)
2. Peer pressure
3. Group think
4. Group members might not react in an ideal manner during an emergency (i.e., may panic or freeze).
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Jim Davies
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Re: Missing Hiker Capitol Peak 7/31

Post by Jim Davies »

Candace66 wrote: Thu Aug 05, 2021 2:28 pm My years of participating in and observing CO climbing and peakbagging doesn't support those conclusions at all.
Same here. In fact, quite the opposite: most fatalities are experienced Colorado climbers on difficult routes who take falls. Confirmation bias is strong, though, and it would be interesting to see some actual numbers. In the absence of actual comprehensive stats, here's a list of deaths from Longs Peak from 1990 to 2010, from a Trail & Timberline article by Woody Smith (https://cmc.org/Portals/0/GoverningDocs ... 202011.pdf). Of the 20 deaths, 13 are Coloradans. 15 are falls, two heart attacks, two exposure/hypothermia, and one lightning. Since Longs is in a national park, I'd expect there to be a higher percentage of out-of-state climbers than on most 14ers.
longs deaths 1990-2010.JPG
longs deaths 1990-2010.JPG (111.73 KiB) Viewed 3950 times
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Jim Davies
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Re: Missing Hiker Capitol Peak 7/31

Post by Jim Davies »

Here's another article that categorized 57 deaths from 2010 to 2017. The main trends he found: A very large percentage were male, two-thirds were falls, and half were on only six mountains (Capitol, Longs, Crestones, Maroon Bells). https://snowbrains.com/analyzing-nearly ... dos-14ers/
Climbing at altitude is like hitting your head against a brick wall — it's great when you stop. -- Chris Darwin
I'm pretty tired. I think I'll go home now. -- Forrest Gump
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mtree
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Re: Missing Hiker Capitol Peak 7/31

Post by mtree »

Jim Davies wrote: Thu Aug 05, 2021 4:16 pm Since Longs is in a national park, I'd expect there to be a higher percentage of out-of-state climbers than on most 14ers.
Why would you think that? I don't see the correlation just because Longs is in a national park.
Seems to me a bunch of pseudo science going on here with very selective data and incomplete data. In other words. Just a wild guess with no scientific basis.
- I didn't say it was your fault. I said I was blaming you.
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Jim Davies
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Re: Missing Hiker Capitol Peak 7/31

Post by Jim Davies »

Nonetheless, Longs fatalities over that period were 65% in-state climbers. I fail to see a trend of out-of-staters here.
Climbing at altitude is like hitting your head against a brick wall — it's great when you stop. -- Chris Darwin
I'm pretty tired. I think I'll go home now. -- Forrest Gump
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oldschool
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Re: Missing Hiker Capitol Peak 7/31

Post by oldschool »

Jorts wrote: Thu Aug 05, 2021 9:40 am Solo hiking shares a lot of similarities to solo backcountry skiing. Sure, if something goes wrong you don’t have a partner to help you out. But your margins widen and there is no false sense of safety in numbers. The heightened sense of self-reliance and self-awareness is empowering despite it appearing foolish to those that would never dare. In many ways solo travel can make you a better partner and decision maker.
Agree 100%

50% of my 14er summits have been solo. I have done 2 long sections, each one being 300 mile hikes, on the Arizona Trail solo. I will be riding my dirt bike approx 200 miles through the remote back country of Death Valley this winter solo. Just this last Wednesday I rode my dirt bike 90 miles round trip out to Sweet Alice Springs in Bears Ears...very remote and spectacular! I do most of my outdoor activities as a solo hiker and rider. I do not feel more at risk being solo. I do not feel the situation is more dangerous being solo. I do not feel being solo means I'm reckless, I have a "death wish", or that I'm foolish for doing so. You do you, I'll do me.

As is usual on this site....a tragic death, an injured SAR personnel and the discussion once again quickly goes to "but this climber did this and they shouldn't have" or " I would never do that" or so many of the repeated comments fro other tragic accidents in the mountains.

RIP Kelly.

Mike
"There's a feeling I get when I look to the West and my spirit is crying for leaving" Led Zeppelin
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Trotter
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Re: Missing Hiker Capitol Peak 7/31

Post by Trotter »

Jim Davies wrote: Thu Aug 05, 2021 5:16 pm Nonetheless, Longs fatalities over that period were 65% in-state climbers. I fail to see a trend of out-of-staters here.
The other important number would be the percentage of people who attempt it who are out of stater. If say 1% of people climbing longs were out of ataters, then 35% deaths would be a hell of a trend.
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Re: Missing Hiker Capitol Peak 7/31

Post by hellmanm »

Can we please stop the analysis on a thread where a guy died? His family is probably reading all this. Some frequent posters who should know better are doing a lot of it here. RIP Kelly, condolences to all that knew him.
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Re: Missing Hiker Capitol Peak 7/31

Post by Alpinefroggy »

The weather is great but the SAR situation is complicated and should discourage people from attempting Capitol this weekend. Let them work and don't be a nuisance. Capitol will still be there.

I said I was climbing capitol but I am deciding to avoid the area for this weekend and do a 13er in rocky mountain for this very reason.
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Re: Missing Hiker Capitol Peak 7/31

Post by onebyone »

Seems like the majority of deaths on Capitol occur off route and when people have deliberately done so trying to take a short cut.

The deceased was found about 500 feet below the end of the ridge on the summit side. Lines up with the shortcut theory. But who knows. He could have fallen from the ridge. IDK But I wouldn't be surprised is this turns about to be the same story that gets repeated again and again, thus the great sign debate here.

Believing that these accidents are due to pilot error make people feel safer. But sometimes it's just bad luck, nothing more, nothing less. A lot of rain lately. Maybe something normally very stable gave way.
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Re: Missing Hiker Capitol Peak 7/31

Post by JChitwood »

hellmanm wrote: Thu Aug 05, 2021 8:39 pm Can we please stop the analysis on a thread where a guy died? His family is probably reading all this. Some frequent posters who should know better are doing a lot of it here. RIP Kelly, condolences to all that knew him.
Condolences to the family of the fallen climber but I’ll never understand this. I was a whitewater kayaker for 25 years a sport that had fewer participants than climbing but a lot of deaths. Every accident was analyzed down to the smallest details in an effort to keep other paddlers from the same fate. American Whitewater even published the findings in an annual “how everybody died” issue. But for Colorado mountain accidents no questions can be asked on the most widely read forum. As to the family reading it I’d think they would want to know what happened.
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