Battle of the forecast models...

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denvermikey
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Battle of the forecast models...

Post by denvermikey »

I have been a big proponent of mountain-forecast.com when checking out weather for upcoming hikes. It has been fairly reliable for me. Not 100% for sure, but not too far off.
We are planning on doing a couple of 13ers just north of Mt Sherman tomorrow. When I bring up my two usual sources, NOAA (linked from this site) and Mountain-forecast.com for Mt Sherman, I get two different stories. NOAA calls for a chance of rain storms before 9, then pretty much game on for storms after then. Mountain-forecast calls for mostly clear skies in the morning with the storms starting around noon. See attachments below. The 13ers we are doing are very low commitment and fairly short so if the weather turns bad we can bail easily.
Will report tomorrow to see which forecast is more accurate.

Anyone else notice this big a difference in the two sites for forecast tomorrow?


Screen Shot 2021-07-23 at 7.33.44 PM.png
Screen Shot 2021-07-23 at 7.33.44 PM.png (26.64 KiB) Viewed 2338 times
Screen Shot 2021-07-23 at 7.33.44 PM.png
Screen Shot 2021-07-23 at 7.33.44 PM.png (26.64 KiB) Viewed 2338 times
Attachments
Screen Shot 2021-07-23 at 7.32.31 PM.png
Screen Shot 2021-07-23 at 7.32.31 PM.png (41.72 KiB) Viewed 2338 times
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jfm3
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...

Post by jfm3 »

I've been checking Crestone Peak all week and noticed the same thing. I have no idea where MountainForecast gets their information. This week MF and NOAA are completely different. I'm going with NOAA. The forecast looks much better starting on Monday.
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...

Post by greenonion »

I've seen someone on here fairly recently describe Mountain Forecast as somewhat overly optimistic, in general, and NOAA somewhat a bit more on the pessimistic side, and I agree. Would rather go with the more careful of the two.
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...

Post by RyGuy »

I've really never seen Mountain Forecast be that accurate. It always seems overly optimistic. I tried going with it for a few weeks, went back to NOAA and Chris Tomer whenever he posted. Far more accurate.
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...

Post by aholle88 »

OpenSummit has been the most accurate from what I’ve seen. I typically cross check NOAA here on 14ers, mountain forecast, OpenSummit, and then weather.com for the closest mountain town to wherever I’m going. Opensummit is usually the closest to spot on and it gives you a nice layout of the important things for outdoor activities in an hourly format (cloud cover, temp, precip, lightning, wind). Worth the cost IMO for the accuracy.
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disentangled
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...

Post by disentangled »

Reading the weather is a game of interpretation. You have to take all the information, collate it, and draw conclusions. I usually decide to just "go and find out".
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Will_E
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...

Post by Will_E »

I’ve been using Mountain Forecast the past few winters, it’s generally been pretty accurate and helpful.
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yaktoleft13
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...

Post by yaktoleft13 »

Which one was right today? I was debating going to the sangres but bailed due to weather/other reasons. How has the day turned out relative to the models?
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...

Post by TomPierce »

shelly+ wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:02 am Reading the weather is a game of interpretation. You have to take all the information, collate it, and draw conclusions. I usually decide to just "go and find out".
Ditto. It's freakin' weather! :lol: Sure, look at a forecast but don't be surprised at inaccuracy, just part of the game. If the forecast is off I either suck it up (hike in the rain/sleet) or opt for Plan B, whatever that might be.

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Re: Battle of the forecast models...

Post by Jorts »

Somebody on here recommended spotwx.com and I've been relying on it since. CAIC in the winter.
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denvermikey
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...

Post by denvermikey »

Well here is a summary of what was predicted versus what actually happened.

NOAA predicted - rain showers likely before 9, then showers and thunderstorms the rest of the day. Mostly cloudy, winds 10-15 mph.
MF predicted - Mostly clear skies in the morning, no rain or storms until afternoon, light winds 5 mph most of the morning.

Here is what reality was:

No rain all morning (didn't even start to sprinkle until we were leaving Fairplay around noon) - MF gets the check here
Hardly any sun all morning - NOAA gets the check here
The wind was ridiculous - Slight nod to NOAA with their higher wind speed forecast, but in reality it was 20+ mph constant.

Winner? Nothing definitive. This is one day's sample in one small specific area. If you were more concerned about the rain and storms (which I was) then MF was more accurate.
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...

Post by cougar »

Most outlets were forecasting widespread storms and rain early, with a double monsoon causing storms to linger,, and most areas in the northern 2/3 got nothing.
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