Battle of the forecast models...

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jbealer
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...

Post by jbealer »

I bailed on the 4 pass loop this weekend because of the "all day rain" Hassell was my back up plain on sunday, NOAA said rain maybe by 9am then more chance by noon, MF showed it later in the day. Got my ass on the trail by 4:50am, summit at 8:15, winds started picking up per NOAA, BUT by the time i got down the trail some the sun was coming out and by the time i hit the Herman gulch trail i was baking. If anything i had the whole trail to my self on the way up and only had to deal with the hordes of people coming up as i was leaving, glad i got out and "tried".
last weekend both sites showed rain after noon, we got hit with a storm at 7:30am. Weather is always a hit and miss around here, if you go out knowing you might have to turn around it hurts a little less, for me i just try and start super early to stay dry.
No Mountain too steep, No trail too long....
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yaktoleft13
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...

Post by yaktoleft13 »

Did Adams Sunday. NOAA said 30-->80% chance of thunderstorms, mf said sunny, then some clouds. 100% clear until 11:30, then a couple of small clouds. When I left the San Luis valley around 230, still no real storm threat from what I could see.

Chalk one up for MF
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Alpinefroggy
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...

Post by Alpinefroggy »

yaktoleft13 wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 11:19 am Did Adams Sunday. NOAA said 30-->80% chance of thunderstorms, mf said sunny, then some clouds. 100% clear until 11:30, then a couple of small clouds. When I left the San Luis valley around 230, still no real storm threat from what I could see.

Chalk one up for MF
This is basically what I’ve seen a lot.

Did sneffels a few weeks ago.

MF: clear until 9, then clouds.

NOAA: it might rain before 11!!!!

Actual weather: bluebird clear until 10 then big clouds.
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randalmartin
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...

Post by randalmartin »

yaktoleft13 wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 11:19 am Did Adams Sunday. NOAA said 30-->80% chance of thunderstorms, mf said sunny, then some clouds. 100% clear until 11:30, then a couple of small clouds. When I left the San Luis valley around 230, still no real storm threat from what I could see.

Chalk one up for MF
Good thing you did it Sunday. Friend of mine went to Adams Saturday and got stormed back down before reaching Willow Lake. It was bad with torrential rain that turned the creek crossing just pass the TH into a raging creek/river by late evening.
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yaktoleft13
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...

Post by yaktoleft13 »

randalmartin wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 11:27 am
yaktoleft13 wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 11:19 am Did Adams Sunday. NOAA said 30-->80% chance of thunderstorms, mf said sunny, then some clouds. 100% clear until 11:30, then a couple of small clouds. When I left the San Luis valley around 230, still no real storm threat from what I could see.

Chalk one up for MF
Good thing you did it Sunday. Friend of mine went to Adams Saturday and got stormed back down before reaching Willow Lake. It was bad with torrential rain that turned the creek crossing just pass the TH into a raging creek/river by late evening.
Yeah we had to deal with the high streams. Spent 45 minutes with two others building a log bridge over the stream crossing at 10.9. it was absolutely raging! And a number of groups were stranded at the lake Saturday night
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