Risk Tolerance - Lightning
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- Eli Watson
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Risk Tolerance - Lightning
Hey All,
Now that we're getting into the warmer months and thunderstorms are becoming more common, I'm curious where the community at large stands on personal risk tolerance for this. I had Colorado in mind when I thought of this, but that doesn't have to be its limit. Obviously it's highly dependent on terrain, route, elevation, location, etc., and there's a whole host of considerations when a rain cloud seems to be headed your way. For the purposes of the poll I kind of had to frame it as a mutually exclusive list, even though one would hopefully make a note of rain clouds building well before any thunder is heard. nyker did a thread like this a few years back concerning a specific example, so this is meant to be more general of your upper end: at what point do you call it a day?
Now that we're getting into the warmer months and thunderstorms are becoming more common, I'm curious where the community at large stands on personal risk tolerance for this. I had Colorado in mind when I thought of this, but that doesn't have to be its limit. Obviously it's highly dependent on terrain, route, elevation, location, etc., and there's a whole host of considerations when a rain cloud seems to be headed your way. For the purposes of the poll I kind of had to frame it as a mutually exclusive list, even though one would hopefully make a note of rain clouds building well before any thunder is heard. nyker did a thread like this a few years back concerning a specific example, so this is meant to be more general of your upper end: at what point do you call it a day?
People who are hardcore don't think they're hardcore. Marshall Ulrich, Fastest Known Podcast #85
- cottonmountaineering
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Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning
my rule of thumb is to be in a safe spot by noon during june-september ish
- bdloftin77
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Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning
Ha, you forgot the “Depends on how close I am to the summit” option.
Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning
Having had one unpleasant experience above treeline (west ridge on Evans), I do not like to be above treeline when a thunderstorm is in the vicinity. I start quite early in the summer to avoid the storms, and unless it's a bluebird day, I like to be pretty close to the trees by 12:30 or so. Any hint of vertical development in the clouds when I'm high on a ridge or a summit is enough to make the sphincter tighten for me.
I'm also a meteorologist, and while you might think that this would be helpful, for me it isn't always. I've noticed a tendency within myself to want to say, "well, I can tell that cloud's got a long way to go before it can even produce any rain; I'll keep going," or "the cloud top's not glaciated* yet, so I've got time." These days I remind myself not to overthink it and just go down, since that sort of thinking is what got me in trouble on Evans. The atmosphere can evolve very quickly, even from a meteorologist's perspective.
*glaciated means ice-containing in meteorology. The presence of ice crystals and graupel in a cloud are prerequisites for lightning, since it is the rubbing together of these particles that generates charge.
I'm also a meteorologist, and while you might think that this would be helpful, for me it isn't always. I've noticed a tendency within myself to want to say, "well, I can tell that cloud's got a long way to go before it can even produce any rain; I'll keep going," or "the cloud top's not glaciated* yet, so I've got time." These days I remind myself not to overthink it and just go down, since that sort of thinking is what got me in trouble on Evans. The atmosphere can evolve very quickly, even from a meteorologist's perspective.
*glaciated means ice-containing in meteorology. The presence of ice crystals and graupel in a cloud are prerequisites for lightning, since it is the rubbing together of these particles that generates charge.
Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning
I have been shocked by lightning twice so I tend to be more on the cautious side now days.
I'm old, slow and fat. Unfortunately, those are my good qualities.
- Carl_Healy
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Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning
This is something I was wondering about... Are clouds OK if there isn't any vertical development?ekalina wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 8:25 pm Having had one unpleasant experience above treeline (west ridge on Evans), I do not like to be above treeline when a thunderstorm is in the vicinity. I start quite early in the summer to avoid the storms, and unless it's a bluebird day, I like to be pretty close to the trees by 12:30 or so. Any hint of vertical development in the clouds when I'm high on a ridge or a summit is enough to make the sphincter tighten for me.
I'm also a meteorologist, and while you might think that this would be helpful, for me it isn't always. I've noticed a tendency within myself to want to say, "well, I can tell that cloud's got a long way to go before it can even produce any rain; I'll keep going," or "the cloud top's not glaciated* yet, so I've got time." These days I remind myself not to overthink it and just go down, since that sort of thinking is what got me in trouble on Evans. The atmosphere can evolve very quickly, even from a meteorologist's perspective.
*glaciated means ice-containing in meteorology. The presence of ice crystals and graupel in a cloud are prerequisites for lightning, since it is the rubbing together of these particles that generates charge.
We got caught in some clouds on the summit of Quandary last Saturday, my first time experiencing that, and it certainly had me feeling uneasy.
But we weren't really seeing much in the way of precipitation and the clouds rolling through looked "flat."
And for what it's worth NOAA was only calling for chances of lightning noon onward (we summited at 8:00).
I can't help but wonder if we were tempting fate or not here though...
If you can't run, you walk
If you can't walk, you crawl
If you can't crawl, you find someone to carry you
If you can't walk, you crawl
If you can't crawl, you find someone to carry you
Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning
It depends. To form thunderstorms, clouds need to undergo substantial vertical development. The danger of being near (or in) a flat cloud bank is that it could block nearby vertically-developing clouds from your view. You also have to keep in mind that every thunderstorm starts somewhere, and a cloud that appeared benign from a distance could begin developing vertically once you hiked into it. From the inside, clouds generally look the same (like a dense fog) regardless of what they look like to an external observer.Carl_Healy wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 8:31 pm This is something I was wondering about... Are clouds OK if there isn't any vertical development?
We got caught in some clouds on the summit of Quandary last Saturday, my first time experiencing that, and it certainly had me feeling uneasy.
But we weren't really seeing much in the way of precipitation and the clouds rolling through looked "flat."
And for what it's worth NOAA was only calling for chances of lightning noon onward (we summited at 8:00).
I can't help but wonder if we were tempting fate or not here though...
But, given you were there so early in the morning, as long as there were breaks in the clouds that allowed you to see around them and confirm everything was flat/stratus-like, the risk was probably pretty low.
Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning
I should also note that if you're near or directly underneath a developing thunderstorm, the cloud above you is going to look flat, even though it may extend thousands of feet into the air above the cloud base. You can't see the vertical development, because you can't see through the cloud base.
You also have to consider whether a layer of overcast could be hiding your view of something insidious happening above that overcast layer.
Lots to think about. When in doubt, descend!
You also have to consider whether a layer of overcast could be hiding your view of something insidious happening above that overcast layer.
Lots to think about. When in doubt, descend!
- Carl_Healy
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Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning
Fair enough.ekalina wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 8:55 pm I should also note that if you're near or directly underneath a developing thunderstorm, the cloud above you is going to look flat, even though it may extend thousands of feet into the air above the cloud base. You can't see the vertical development, because you can't see through the cloud base.
You also have to consider whether a layer of overcast could be hiding your view of something insidious happening above that overcast layer.
Lots to think about. When in doubt, descend!
Conditions that day had a lot of others turn around as we were descending (wind was a bit much too).
But of course, when we got to the car we could see all the way to the summit. It was surrounded by blue skies.
If you can't run, you walk
If you can't walk, you crawl
If you can't crawl, you find someone to carry you
If you can't walk, you crawl
If you can't crawl, you find someone to carry you
Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning
Been there. Turned around a few times under thick overcast, fairly early in the morning, only to have it break up an hour or two later.Carl_Healy wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 9:01 pm
But of course, when we got to the car we could see all the way to the summit. It was surrounded by blue skies.
- justiner
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Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning
The worst thunderstorm I've been stuck up high happened around 10am. The angry of this dark demon cloud is hard to describe - but safe to say it was even faster to arrive.
I've also been on ridgelines for days on end - literally the highest thing for miles - without a care in the world. Lots has to do with the luck of the weather.
I'd say my risk tolerance for lightning is really high - but I also can fly down a hillside if needed. I wouldn't follow my lead unless you can descend 1,000' in < 10 minutes!
I've also been on ridgelines for days on end - literally the highest thing for miles - without a care in the world. Lots has to do with the luck of the weather.
I'd say my risk tolerance for lightning is really high - but I also can fly down a hillside if needed. I wouldn't follow my lead unless you can descend 1,000' in < 10 minutes!
Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning
Going up Maroon Peak in mid-August 2019 I got rained on at 5 in the morning - no lightning, just rain but that really spooked me. I huddled on the side of the mountain for a good long while in a semi-sheltered spot waiting to see what would happen and ready to go flying down the mountain if needed.
Eventually more people started coming up as the sun rose and the ominous clouds moved away from the summit so I went on up and summitted before 10:30am in beautiful weather.
Earlier during my July Chicago Basin trip, I got Sunlight and Windom and would have gone on for the Eolus pair that same day but a storm was moving in so I booked it down to camp and the heavens burst forth the moment I unzipped the tent (the guys I met at the campsite the night before had shared their story of being pummeled on the mountainside by hail that tore right through a tarp they tried to hide under - their helmets got unexpected use that day...) I did a 4am start the next day to tag the other 2 peaks in time to still catch the train.
So, yes, early starts especially during rainy season - but even that's not always a guarantee...
Eventually more people started coming up as the sun rose and the ominous clouds moved away from the summit so I went on up and summitted before 10:30am in beautiful weather.
Earlier during my July Chicago Basin trip, I got Sunlight and Windom and would have gone on for the Eolus pair that same day but a storm was moving in so I booked it down to camp and the heavens burst forth the moment I unzipped the tent (the guys I met at the campsite the night before had shared their story of being pummeled on the mountainside by hail that tore right through a tarp they tried to hide under - their helmets got unexpected use that day...) I did a 4am start the next day to tag the other 2 peaks in time to still catch the train.
So, yes, early starts especially during rainy season - but even that's not always a guarantee...