The recent fires got me thinking the origins of them and honestly while I've always been aware of the different fires over the years, I haven't studied them in terms of which regions are more prone to seeing burns.
I get that drier summer conditions usually set more ideal conditions for fires, whether started naturally or my humans (intentional or not), any prevailing drought exacerbating them, then made
worse by large stands of dead trees acting as easy fuel, windier periods, etc. Some fire/burns will always naturally occur and allows for rebirth of an area and as we know some plants require a burn for their seeds to open.
My question to those in the know is: Are there certain regions/mountain ranges of the state that are more susceptible to seeing fires re-occur over the years? Or is it more
linked to topography, influence of wind-spreading or other factors whether natural, i.e. areas with larger evergreen forests (vs. aspen/deciduous, plains, or beetle kills acting as tinder boxes, areas more prone to being struck by lightning and then it's about inevitability and statistics at work,
or not natural, maybe areas with heavier camping where fires are often started accidentally/carelessly, power lines? Arson? Or is it just all random? (I am focusing on non-urban areas west of the Denver/Springs line to limit the industrial factor).
The fires
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dwoodward13
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Re: The fires
I'll be curious to see if people in the forestry/firefighting fields chime in on this as I had never really thought of if certainly types of forest or locations tend to burn.
I'll add another contributing factor in some of these fires was the formerly decade longs policy of the USFS and other land mangers to aggressively put out any fire, even if it was naturally caused, regardless of if it was posing a threat to life or property. Under normal fire behavior, fires would burn the underbrush of the forest floor, but leave the canopy of the forest relatively unscathed. However now a days due to hotter and drier conditions caused by climate change, and an excess of dry fuels (thick underbrush that wasn't allowed to burn naturally, beetle kill, ect), these fires are burning much more intensely destroying not only the underbrush, but also the forest canopy. Without the canopy, the ground is unable to hold the (now) lesser amounts of moisture it might see, as it is getting direct sunlight inhibiting young growth. Additionally if a fire burns hot enough, it can destroy the soil's ability to even support life. This is evident in places like the Hayman burn scar, that still 18 years later is struggling to regrow in many places.
Of course now that the wildland-urban interface has increased drastically in recent years, land managers are now having to fight these fires aggressively to safe life/property, which of course will only increase the fuels in the forests near these interfaces, potentially creating a catastrophic scenario down the road.
A combination of climate change, formerly bad forest health management, increased wildland-urban interfaces, and more people visiting the forest are creating an new normal for fire seasons.
I'll add another contributing factor in some of these fires was the formerly decade longs policy of the USFS and other land mangers to aggressively put out any fire, even if it was naturally caused, regardless of if it was posing a threat to life or property. Under normal fire behavior, fires would burn the underbrush of the forest floor, but leave the canopy of the forest relatively unscathed. However now a days due to hotter and drier conditions caused by climate change, and an excess of dry fuels (thick underbrush that wasn't allowed to burn naturally, beetle kill, ect), these fires are burning much more intensely destroying not only the underbrush, but also the forest canopy. Without the canopy, the ground is unable to hold the (now) lesser amounts of moisture it might see, as it is getting direct sunlight inhibiting young growth. Additionally if a fire burns hot enough, it can destroy the soil's ability to even support life. This is evident in places like the Hayman burn scar, that still 18 years later is struggling to regrow in many places.
Of course now that the wildland-urban interface has increased drastically in recent years, land managers are now having to fight these fires aggressively to safe life/property, which of course will only increase the fuels in the forests near these interfaces, potentially creating a catastrophic scenario down the road.
A combination of climate change, formerly bad forest health management, increased wildland-urban interfaces, and more people visiting the forest are creating an new normal for fire seasons.
Re: The fires
Some areas seem more fire prone, semiarid foothills in Colorado naturally dry out. But I don't think we get the same patterns for reburn of areas like other states, for some reason. Smaller scale fires have hit the same spot though. Forests tend to be thinner in CO, especially after a fire, takes a while to regrow.
Look at California though, big fires every year in the same places, around the same cities. You'd think there would be no fuel left, or established fire lines. The wind and climate patterns play a huge part. Northern Rockies also get frequent big fires, Canada, Idaho, Montana. Glacier np has had multiple huge fires in recent years.
Look at California though, big fires every year in the same places, around the same cities. You'd think there would be no fuel left, or established fire lines. The wind and climate patterns play a huge part. Northern Rockies also get frequent big fires, Canada, Idaho, Montana. Glacier np has had multiple huge fires in recent years.
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Vincopotamus
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Re: The fires
I’ve been high-speed landscaping for the green machine for a decade now and here’s my stab at your question.
There’s no real pattern other than where there is fuel (trees, brush, grass, etc) and hot and dry conditions, there is potential for fire. Juniper trees are queued up to burn almost all year, but need wind to move it around since surface fuels tend to be sparse compared to a ponderosa stand with needlecast. Higher elevations tend to burn later in the summer since they hold snow/moisture longer, but there’s exceptions. Southern and western aspects tend to burn hotter since they get more sun, though northern aspects have the moisture to support more decadent vegetation - them again when it’s really dry (right now), all that extra fuel dries out and fire can rip through it.
People put a lot of stock in snowpack for predicting fire season, but the most important thing, once the snow has left, is what the weather has done the last 4-6 weeks. In 2017, Montana entered the spring with a bumper snowpack, but by June, relentless hot and dry conditions obliterated the snowpack and July-September saw record breaking fires. Similarly, early season rains can raise a thick crop of grass which doesn’t take long to cure out once high pressure sets in.
Storms that bring rain often bring lightning, and if a God Rod finds a dry tree, it can smolder inside for several days before the surrounding fuels dry out enough to carry fire. Higher elevations typically catch more bolts than low elevations but there’s loads of exceptions to that rule.
Regarding ignitions, lightning is a major source but there can be a variety of unintentional human causes aside from campfires, fireworks or the stereotypical cigarette butt. Dragging tire chains will throw sparks, catalytic converters can ignite dry grass, power lines fall in the wind, people welding or cutting metal for fences, etc all cause a significant amount of fires.
Re: stands of dead timber - contrary to popular belief, trees that have died and lost their needles rarely fuel rapid fire growth. Fine fuels (needles) are the primary carrier of fire, so once those needles fall, the trees won’t carry crown fire. The dead and down logs will burn hot but move comparatively slow. However, dying trees in the “red needle” phase are about as flammable as it gets. And it’s important to recognize that on a dry year, apparently green, healthy trees can have critically low fuel moisture and will burn readily.
There’s no real pattern other than where there is fuel (trees, brush, grass, etc) and hot and dry conditions, there is potential for fire. Juniper trees are queued up to burn almost all year, but need wind to move it around since surface fuels tend to be sparse compared to a ponderosa stand with needlecast. Higher elevations tend to burn later in the summer since they hold snow/moisture longer, but there’s exceptions. Southern and western aspects tend to burn hotter since they get more sun, though northern aspects have the moisture to support more decadent vegetation - them again when it’s really dry (right now), all that extra fuel dries out and fire can rip through it.
People put a lot of stock in snowpack for predicting fire season, but the most important thing, once the snow has left, is what the weather has done the last 4-6 weeks. In 2017, Montana entered the spring with a bumper snowpack, but by June, relentless hot and dry conditions obliterated the snowpack and July-September saw record breaking fires. Similarly, early season rains can raise a thick crop of grass which doesn’t take long to cure out once high pressure sets in.
Storms that bring rain often bring lightning, and if a God Rod finds a dry tree, it can smolder inside for several days before the surrounding fuels dry out enough to carry fire. Higher elevations typically catch more bolts than low elevations but there’s loads of exceptions to that rule.
Regarding ignitions, lightning is a major source but there can be a variety of unintentional human causes aside from campfires, fireworks or the stereotypical cigarette butt. Dragging tire chains will throw sparks, catalytic converters can ignite dry grass, power lines fall in the wind, people welding or cutting metal for fences, etc all cause a significant amount of fires.
Re: stands of dead timber - contrary to popular belief, trees that have died and lost their needles rarely fuel rapid fire growth. Fine fuels (needles) are the primary carrier of fire, so once those needles fall, the trees won’t carry crown fire. The dead and down logs will burn hot but move comparatively slow. However, dying trees in the “red needle” phase are about as flammable as it gets. And it’s important to recognize that on a dry year, apparently green, healthy trees can have critically low fuel moisture and will burn readily.
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