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Fourth Annual 14ers Winter Welcomer!

Need a climbing partner? Trying to form a hiking group for an outing?

Should we cancel or change the date due to winds?

Poll ended at Sat Oct 27, 2012 8:04 pm

1. Let's not cancel. Winter and wind go go together. Still down for Saturday!
42
53%
2. Yes, let's cancel. Gusts to 55 mph are not my idea of a welcomer. Besides, I'm not very experienced, and I'd like something mellow to start out.
4
5%
3. I'd really like to go, but maybe conditions will be better next weekend. I'd be down for Nov 3 or 4.
34
43%
 
Total votes : 80
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Re: Fourth Annual 14ers Winter Welcomer!

Postby rking007 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 5:56 pm

Well all right! I really was hoping to have some kind of something up there. Sounds like a good time to work the layering system.
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Re: Fourth Annual 14ers Winter Welcomer!

Postby TheOtherIndian » Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:14 pm

MountainHiker wrote:
The wind will probably be an issue Saturday. The hourly graph is showing 25 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph.



Why does the wind always pick the Winter welcomer? Or does Jim pick the windy days months in advance?
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Re: Fourth Annual 14ers Winter Welcomer!

Postby mikemalick » Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:42 pm

I will be leaving the Wagon Road PnR (I-25 and 120th NE Westminster) around 5:30 AM to get to the TH around 7:30 with plenty of time for the general 8 AM start time. Have room for 2 more. PM if interested.

-Mike

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Re: Fourth Annual 14ers Winter Welcomer!

Postby Andymcp1 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:40 pm

Mike- PM sent, looks like I will have the day off and be joining in for the fun again!

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Re: Fourth Annual 14ers Winter Welcomer!

Postby lindazco » Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:28 pm

MountainHiker wrote:
MountainHiker wrote:
cocraig wrote:This will be my first wintery climb. I have spikes, will snowshoes be necessary?

I wouldn’t plan on snowshoes. Spikes might be good to have along with a pole(s). The biggest issue will be dressing for the cold.
Mmmm, we’ll watch what actually happens with this storm! That’s a lot of wind along with the snow. There could be a few drifts and deposit areas but with a lot blown off.

The wind will probably be an issue Saturday. The hourly graph is showing 25 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph.


Late Afternoon: Snow showers. Steady temperature around 26. Breezy, with a west southwest wind around 24 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow. Low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -7. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Thursday: A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 18. Wind chill values as low as -8. Breezy, with a west wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Thursday: Night Snow. Low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -10. West wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. North northwest wind 9 to 11 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 11. Windy.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 26. Windy.


Sustained winds 25-30 mph, gust to 48 mph, wind chill in the negative to single digits. It'll be winter alright! http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.39673&lon=-106.10348374633787&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

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Re: Fourth Annual 14ers Winter Welcomer!

Postby sunny1 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:02 pm

Wind weenie here. Up to 55 mph gusts is a bit much!
I'm bowing out and will stay lower in the trees, unless the wind calms down substantially.
You guys have fun! :-D
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Re: Fourth Annual 14ers Winter Welcomer!

Postby DeucesWild » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:07 pm

sunny1 wrote:Wind weenie here.


How do you wind a weenie?
Snowflakes, Uber Alles!

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Re: Fourth Annual 14ers Winter Welcomer!

Postby winmag4582001 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 6:17 pm

Anyone else bringing a Which Wich bag???
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Re: Fourth Annual 14ers Winter Welcomer!

Postby marie123 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 6:49 pm

I've had the crappy flu all week, but I'm in - call me crazy but the completely cold forecast sounds too tempting to pass up!

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Re: Fourth Annual 14ers Winter Welcomer!

Postby MountainHiker » Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:44 pm

29 degrees and mostly sunny sounds great. But this wind, 29 to 33 with gusts as high as 55 mph blowing fresh snow. I’ll be watching the forecast to see which way the wind trends. We've done Quandary in the wind a few times so we might p**sy out and do something lower. We’ll see. It’s always great to meet everybody.
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Re: Fourth Annual 14ers Winter Welcomer!

Postby Dancesatmoonrise » Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:15 pm

Jay521 and I summitted Quandary today. We actually had to break some trail both up and down; a bit of a squall during the day dropped another 2-5 inches. Definitely wintery conditions. It was about 6 degrees on the summit this afternoon, much colder than it will be Saturday, though winds probably were gusting only to maybe 35. It was overcast most of the day. We were the only ones on the summit, though a group of about six or eight attempted and turned back. Will try to get some photos up later tonight or tomorrow. The scree is not frozen, so the new snow hides the loose stuff, making it a bit harder than iin years past, especially on the descent.

Regarding the winds. Yes, Karthik, you may be correct.... :( Saturday looks to be the worst day.

Question: Should we cancel or change the date? I put up a poll. I know it's short notice but the models have been wavering all week; I was hopeful for a reprieve from the wind, but it is not to be. Please vote and we'll make a group decision.

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Re: Fourth Annual 14ers Winter Welcomer!

Postby Scott P » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:14 pm

29 degrees and mostly sunny sounds great.


I think the Quandary forecast is off (the forecast for Quandary is usually too warm).

Average high for the Pikes Peak station is 23F and Quandary is colder than Pikes (which unfortunately although pretty far away is still the only place to get weather data for 14K). Everywhere else in the Colorado Mountains is supposed to below normal Saturday, not above. Today's high on Pikes was 9F and if you compare it to the mountain towns today vs. Saturday, an only ~8 degree warmup is expected, rather than a 20 degree warmup for the mountains.

The Mount Massive forecast says a high of 2F (which is probably too low and should be warmer). I've noticed that usually the reality of temperatures on the mountains in the region is actually somewhere between the Quandary and Massive forecast.

I'd expect the actually high on Quandary will be in the teens. 29F is unrealistic for this weekend. For some reason the noaa forecast is always predicted to be way too warm in the Mosquito and Tenmile Ranges while the Northern Sawatch forecast is always much colder (which in real-life it isn't).

I'd expect temperatures throughout the day to be ~0F (morning) to ~15F (afternoon) with windchills -11F to -35F.
Last edited by Scott P on Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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