Weather danger-who cares?

[mtree]

It has been awhile since I've been caught in a storm. That doesn't mean it won't happen in the future. If you're on a long hike and one rolls up, there isn't much you can do. I've been caught in many nasty storms on ridgelines. Not my cup o tea.

As a yoot I didn't worry as much. After a few close calls I changed my mind. Decided its much better to turn back than get struck by lightning. So I've been told.

Intelligence is knowing the flame is hot. Wisdom is not touching it.

[happyfeet]

I hiked Shav & Tab June 28th and had a similar experience. Upon summiting Shavano (solo), I made the decision that the clouds were not threatening and I would trot over to Tabeguache. I made it over in about 40 mins. and just in time to notice there were a couple, smaller, darker clouds not too far off to the west. Not wasting any time, I jogged back down to Shavano with another group that seemed to be aware of the now building clouds. Made quick work of the return to Shav, and thought the weather wasn't as bad as I had anticipated it would be by this time. Nevertheless, I knew heading down would be a smart choice. As I rearranged my things and prepared to head back down, I noticed I was one of three or four people on the summit... I thought it to be kind to talk about the pending storms to be sure others were at least aware. They seemed careless to it so I urged safety again before I made my way. I started at a quick walk, mushing through light rain as I made it off the summit slope. The entire way I kept thinking to myself "lightning's going to strike any second now". Approaching the trail traversing the hillside below the Shavano/Esprit saddle, I turned around to see what the clouds were doing when BAM! a huge bolt struck the saddle area. I collapsed my poles and proceeded to go full sprint for about 20-30 minutes, briefly shouting "lightning" as I darted past casually walking groups. When I moved (what I thought was) 1/4 mile, the lightning stayed right on top of me... into the trees, down the hillside a ways. Talk about minutes seeming like hours. Eventually the storm broke and it subsided enough for me to get down with only light rain to speak of. Thought I overreacted a bit. Then I got home and saw that same day 15 people and a dog were struck by lightning on Bierstadt. I will NEVER underestimate what the weather can do after this experience.

[Colorado dreaming]

I would like to know more about clouds so I can make at least some what of an educated guess about whether a cloud is threatening or not. Anyone know of any meteorological courses that are open to the general public?

[ortegajv]

I've read through this thread and there seems to be some misconceptions about the formation of thunderclouds and potential severe weather (rain, wind, hail, lightning). One of the things that meteorologists look at is convective available potential energy (CAPE), which is a measurement of the amount of energy an air parcel will have as it's lifted from ground level up higher into the troposphere by convective heating. It's a calculated number that is a little complicated to come up with, but it has to do with the temperature profile that is obtained from soundings, the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, and the theoretical temperature lapse rate (cooling as you go higher in altitude). The total atmospheric pressure (recall "high" and "low" pressure systems) will also affect the ability to form severe storms. High pressure = lower chance of severe weather due to generally descending air. All of these convective thunderstorms systems need some lifting mechanism to get the air moving up and the cloud formation process started. And the mountains provide a physical barrier that assists with that (it's called orographic lifting) in addition to surface warming along the plains.

Thunderstorms don't really "roll in". They are forming around you, and that is why they seem to appear out of nowhere. When you're up high and the moist air is lifted to your elevation, the clouds are being formed and if the local atmosphere is more moist, the more potential you have for cloud formation. Along with that cloud formation and general convection comes charge transfer. The clouds tend to separate out negative and positive charges and at some point, the potential difference between the ground and the cloud exceeds the dielectric strength of the air, and you get a rush of current (lightning) travelling through the ionized path in the air due to the opposite charges, and potential difference. I agree, it's extremely scary - like the devil is in charge, and there's nothing you can do.

Unfortunately, I don't have any suggestions of how to read the clouds when you're up there. But all of the rules of thumb that we use in the mountains are good. Such as be off the summit as soon as possible (since you generally need the heat of the day to start the process), check the weather forecast for atmospheric instability, moisture, etc. before you go.

[DArcyS]

I've read through this thread and there seems to be some misconceptions about the formation of thunderclouds and potential severe weather (rain, wind, hail, lightning).

Thunderstorms don't really "roll in".

Unfortunately, I don't have any suggestions of how to read the clouds when you're up there.

Right, see this thread.

http://www.14ers.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=31538" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

One commenter in that thread said they would have been worried about those clouds, but if you look closely, there's no build to the clouds and the amount of sunshine reaching the ground is significantly high. It looked like a nice September day. It is hard to predict these dangerous storms, especailly if you're out backpacking and you don't have access to the latest forecast.

This summer I was trying to climb a couple peaks in the Weminuche that required a backpack from Beartown, which in itself is difficult to reach by four-wheel drive. We were due to backpack out on Sunday, and we were attempting to climb the peaks on Saturday, so this was our only shot at these peaks (P2 & P3). At around 9am, it looked like we could sneak these peaks in, but by 11:30 heavy clouds began to develop. A small T-storm with minimal thunder developed, but I knew we'd need about three more hours to complete the peaks and I couldn't discount the possibility of a stronger storm materializing given the time of day. I also darn well knew there were plenty of people who would "go for it" and more than likely be rewarded with these summits. But in the back of my mind, I knew I didn't want to be the third party to be struck by lightning this summer. Thus, although I knew the odds favored not being struck by lightning and it would be difficult to comeback (and of course I'll be back), I called it. This failure bothered me even though I had a successful summit of Peak Nine already in my back pocket, but as time goes on, that feeling of failure wears off and the success of other summits is what remains.

Another storm did roll in that afternoon, but it wasn't serious and we probably could have made it. Instead of second guessing myself, I focused on the errors that put us in a bad position to begin with. Asking what you could do differently to improve your safety is better than thinking, "Oh, we could have made it if only we had gone." No use crying over spilled milk, I suppose the saying goes.

[Axeman]

I've read through this thread and there seems to be some misconceptions about the formation of thunderclouds and potential severe weather (rain, wind, hail, lightning). One of the things that meteorologists look at is convective available potential energy (CAPE), which is a measurement of the amount of energy an air parcel will have as it's lifted from ground level up higher into the troposphere by convective heating. It's a calculated number that is a little complicated to come up with, but it has to do with the temperature profile that is obtained from soundings, the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, and the theoretical temperature lapse rate (cooling as you go higher in altitude). The total atmospheric pressure (recall "high" and "low" pressure systems) will also affect the ability to form severe storms. High pressure = lower chance of severe weather due to generally descending air. All of these convective thunderstorms systems need some lifting mechanism to get the air moving up and the cloud formation process started. And the mountains provide a physical barrier that assists with that (it's called orographic lifting) in addition to surface warming along the plains.

OK, nothing horribly wrong with this, you're generally correct but since you're throwing in terms like CAPE I'll add a few things: You should be clear that you are talking about High Pressure aloft and not at the surface. And while high pressure systems aloft are generally not associated with *severe* weather, you can still get plenty of thunderstorms with a high pressure system--the monsoon is a classic example of that. You can't generally calculate CAPE on the back of an envelope, but you can easily see what surface dew points (a measure of low level moisture) are doing, and you can get a rough idea of the atmospheric profile by looking at soundings or at the temperatures aloft to give you an idea of lapse rates. And, of course, CAPE and Lifted Indices (another measure of instability) can be easily found in any of the hundreds of sites online that provide model forecast information.

Thunderstorms don't really "roll in". They are forming around you, and that is why they seem to appear out of nowhere.

Often true, but I think "roll in" isn't such a bad description for some storms which propagate towards you. Atmospheric 'rolls' is even a correct technical term for the instabilities that can result in storms. And while storms can form over your head, they can also be generated by surrounding storms (downdrafts in particular) which may make it seem like storms are 'rolling' towards you.

When you're up high and the moist air is lifted to your elevation, the clouds are being formed and if the local atmosphere is more moist, the more potential you have for cloud formation. Along with that cloud formation and general convection comes charge transfer. The clouds tend to separate out negative and positive charges and at some point, the potential difference between the ground and the cloud exceeds the dielectric strength of the air, and you get a rush of current (lightning) travelling through the ionized path in the air due to the opposite charges, and potential difference. I agree, it's extremely scary - like the devil is in charge, and there's nothing you can do.

Correct, but to be clear, most of the charge separation in the cloud is due to ice particles (falling) in the cloud. That's why you can get a general idea of how electric the storm might be based on the temperature profile and where and how much the ice will be--there are high resolution forecast models that even calculate the potential for lightning in the (forecast) storm.

Unfortunately, I don't have any suggestions of how to read the clouds when you're up there. But all of the rules of thumb that we use in the mountains are good. Such as be off the summit as soon as possible (since you generally need the heat of the day to start the process), check the weather forecast for atmospheric instability, moisture, etc. before you go.

I have some general suggestions. If you want to learn some basics, it's not that hard. I know plenty of storm chasers, balloonists, even skiers who don't have any formal training in meteorology and they can forecast the weather with the best of us. I could teach someone to understand how to interpret model forecasts in a couple hours (I even wrote an ebook with some of the basics). The idea that mountain weather is unpredictable is false. It can be hard, but people should be aware that every year the computer forecasts are getting more and more resolved and better at forecasting storms. I'm not advocating ignoring the official forecasts (after all, I create some of them lol) but if it only takes a couple minutes to look at a model forecast chart/map--why not spend that extra minute or two and give yourself some valuable additional information?
I wont claim that I've never been wrong about the weather forecast for the mountains, I've been wrong many many times. But I've never been surprised, because I know the range of possibilities up front.
If I know the odds of it raining that day and the next (cause I always plan for an overnight contingency) are zero, I leave the rain gear behind. Saves me from carrying it, and every ounce I don't have to carry makes me a happier camper.

One commenter in that thread said they would have been worried about those clouds, but if you look closely, there's no build to the clouds and the amount of sunshine reaching the ground is significantly high. It looked like a nice September day. It is hard to predict these dangerous storms, especially if you're out backpacking and you don't have access to the latest forecast.

Backpacking for more than a few days and I agree, unless you have a smart phone and reception you're out of luck. But you should understand some basics about the weather. For example, it may seem counterintuitive, but the "high amount of sunshine" reaching the ground in your referenced example was one of the ingredients that led to the storms--it wasn't a sign of good weather, it was a sign of potentially worse weather to come. That's why I mentioned in my original response that all the morning clouds the other day was a good thing--it totally shut down the potential for afternoon storms (by cutting off surface heating) and that's why I had very little concern for thunder, even when I was on top of Bison peak at 1:30 pm and there were ominous-looking dark clouds all around me. If it's a day when I know there will be lightning, like your typical monsoonal day in August, I'd be off the summit by 11:00 am, it's much safer than 12 since there are quite a few strikes from 11-12 (and very few before 11)

[Broken Knee]

I know plenty of storm chasers, balloonists, even skiers who don't have any formal training in meteorology and they can forecast the weather with the best of us.

My favorite email to a Denver meteorologist read: "I want to thank you for the 6" of partly cloudy I just shoveled off my driveway." In spite of modern technology and knowledge, I take forecasts with a grain of salt when venturing into the backcountry. One can follow all of the standard guidelines and still get burned. When climbing, it's easy to focus on the task at hand and miss the hints as storms approach, so vigilance is critical. The last time I was on Castleton, my partner took off his shoes and harness on the summit and reclined in the boulders to get some sun - there was not a cloud in the sky. Something in the air made me paranoid, so I organized the rack, knotted the ropes and threaded them into the chains. My sun-soaked partner teased me for not relaxing and enjoying the summit - until a massive bolt of lightning struck the Priest. I've never seen a climber put on a harness so fast...

One thing I think some people miss is the risks taken by climbers that attempt Nolan's or the CO 14ers record, etc., where they can't follow all the golden rules and put themselves in the storm zone day after day.

[DArcyS]

But you should understand some basics about the weather. For example, it may seem counterintuitive, but the "high amount of sunshine" reaching the ground in your referenced example was one of the ingredients that led to the storms--it wasn't a sign of good weather, it was a sign of potentially worse weather to come. That's why I mentioned in my original response that all the morning clouds the other day was a good thing--it totally shut down the potential for afternoon storms (by cutting off surface heating) and that's why I had very little concern for thunder, even when I was on top of Bison peak at 1:30 pm and there were ominous-looking dark clouds all around me. If it's a day when I know there will be lightning, like your typical monsoonal day in August, I'd be off the summit by 11:00 am, it's much safer than 12 since there are quite a few strikes from 11-12 (and very few before 11)

Yeah, I have a couple degrees in the sciences, so understanding the basics about the weather is not beyond my reach, thanks.

Surface heating is a secondary variable or consideration in storm formation, and I respectfully submit that you overstate the importance of surface heating, at least in terms of reading the weather in the field. I doubt if you have ever turned around on a hike because of the high amount of surface heating due to abundant sunshine. That storm blew up on me not because of the amount of sun reaching the surface, but because of other variables, most notably available moisture. Without the moisture, that surface heating does nothing but make for a warm day that's good for climbing. The people who would turn back based upon the atmospheric conditions pictured will reach very few summits because that's a typical mountain day with a good mix of clouds and sunshine.

I generally agree that morning clouds can help to suppress thunderstorms. However, the only time I've been caught on a summit where I could hear the rocks buzz from static electricity occurred on a completely cloudy morning in September. As we approached the summit from the east, a thunderstorm blew in from the west that we could not observe because the mountain blocked our view. We descended rather quickly with lightning dancing around us, and we definitely got lucky on that one. This climb was about 20 years ago, so I don't remember all the details very well, but I do remember thinking the cloudiness would help to suppress the storms. Well, not always.

As an aside, when I'm on a lengthy backpack and I become less and less certain about the forecast as the trip progresses, I will breathe out of my mouth when I first get out of my tent in the morning and look to see if I can see my breath. If I can't see my breath, I know the air is relatively dry and good weather is likely (keeping in mind conditions can change during the day, so nothing is guaranteed). Looking to see if dew is on the plants is another indication of the air's moisture content.

In the end, having the ability to read the weather and knowing the forecast is all good, but typically the best thing you can do to avoid problems is to hit the trail early. No special knowledge is required for that . . .

[Chicago Transplant]

I was at the summit of Shavano yesterday and the black clouds engulfed us within minutes at 930am. As I ran down I was surprised by the number of folks coming up. I spoke to almost everyone, I'm like that, and no one seemed to be worried about the weather. As I ran along, there were more ascenders at treeline, weather getting worse, only like 4 out of maybe 8 turned around and most all on the trail were experienced. It started pouring just after treeline for me.
I don't screw around with weather but am I overly paranoid?

My climbing partners and I talked about this phenomenon ourselves over the weekend. Of course the reason those people kept going is because it was only 9.30am, and they don't need to be off the summits until noon. These same people would probably yell and scream at you for going up at 12.01 pm with zero clouds as far as the eye could see.

I personally go off what I can see in the skies, not some time on a watch. I have been kicked off at 9.30am, and have summited peaks at 4pm depending on the weather. It doesn't mean I necessarily stop just because of some clouds, it depends on what they are doing, but if it looks like storms, I definitely head back.