Forum
Buying gear? Please use these links to help 14ers.com:

More info...

Other ways to help...

Where is the SNOW!!!

Items that do not fit the categories above.
Posts: 98
Joined: Tue Jul 29, 2008 12:18 pm

Re: Where is the SNOW!!!

Postby adkinsadam1 » Mon Nov 26, 2012 8:43 pm

I'd just like to point out one thing....

The Colorado winters as your know them might slowly becoming a thing of the past. As the climate warms, it pushes the jet stream further and further north, and as a result the storm track is predominately north of our state. This means fewer snows in the mountains and much fewer on the plains. This northward trend doesn't happen all of the sudden, but rather as a gradual trend. The general trend for winters in the future will be a trend towards less snow and more warmth. We will still have occasional blizzards, but consistent snow and precip will be out the window.

User avatar
Posts: 907
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2009 1:27 pm
Location: Littleton, CO

Re: Where is the SNOW!!!

Postby geojed » Mon Nov 26, 2012 9:03 pm

adkinsadam1 wrote: As the climate warms, it pushes the jet stream further and further north, and as a result the storm track is predominately north of our state.


I too would like to point out one thing...er...too...the Global Climate has not warmed at all in the last 16yrs. Temperatures have stayed statistically constant and have actually declined the last two years. :xST
• It's by getting away from life that we can see it most clearly... It's by depriving ourselves of the myriad of everyday experiences that we renew our appreciation for them...I've learned from my experiences in the mountains that I love life. — Dave Johnston
• Mountains are not climbed merely to reach a geographical location — but as personal and spiritual challenges to the participants. — David Stein
• The best climber in the world is the one who’s having the most fun.— Alex Lowe
• Why do I climb the mountain? Because I'm in love! — The Captain

User avatar
Posts: 810
Joined: Thu Sep 21, 2006 11:05 am
Location: Boulder

Re: Where is the SNOW!!!

Postby DaveSwink » Mon Nov 26, 2012 9:09 pm

adkinsadam1 wrote:I'd just like to point out one thing....

The Colorado winters as your know them might slowly becoming a thing of the past. As the climate warms, it pushes the jet stream further and further north, and as a result the storm track is predominately north of our state. This means fewer snows in the mountains and much fewer on the plains. This northward trend doesn't happen all of the sudden, but rather as a gradual trend. The general trend for winters in the future will be a trend towards less snow and more warmth. We will still have occasional blizzards, but consistent snow and precip will be out the window.


This is interesting speculation, but I don't believe meterology is sophisticated enough today to definitively state the long term effects of warming on the climate of a specific area (like Colorado). If so, please post supporting docs. [-X

User avatar
Posts: 788
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 12:16 pm
Location: Denver, CO

Re: Where is the SNOW!!!

Postby Oman » Mon Nov 26, 2012 9:23 pm

geojed wrote:I too would like to point out one thing...er...too...the Global Climate has not warmed at all in the last 16yrs. Temperatures have stayed statistically constant and have actually declined the last two years. :xST


I'm not a math major or a geologist. You say global temps have "not warmed at all in the last 16 years." Am I reading this NASA chart wrong:
Image

P.S. Here is the source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

User avatar
Posts: 824
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2007 1:49 pm
Location: Fort Collins

Re: Where is the SNOW!!!

Postby George James » Mon Nov 26, 2012 9:36 pm

1adamadkins wrote:We will still have occasional blizzards, but consistent snow and precip will be out the window.

:-k Gosh, Crestone Needle may never be in from the summit ever again...
- A mountain is not a checkbox to be ticked
- Alpinism and mountaineering are not restricted to 14,000 foot mountains
- Judgment and experience are the two most important pieces of gear you own
- Being honest to yourself and others about your abilities is a characteristic of experienced climbers
- Courage cannot be bought at REI or carried with you in your rucksack
~ The Baron Von Bergschrund

User avatar
Posts: 1875
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:57 pm
Location: Here, Now

Re: Where is the SNOW!!!

Postby Dex » Mon Nov 26, 2012 9:48 pm

If we wait a bit we should have enough snow.

http://www.longrangeweather.com/global_temperatures.htm
Attachments
GTEMPS.gif
GTEMPS.gif (110.11 KiB) Viewed 362 times
Montani Semper Liberi
"Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous." Barry Ritholtz

User avatar
Posts: 907
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2009 1:27 pm
Location: Littleton, CO

Re: Where is the SNOW!!!

Postby geojed » Mon Nov 26, 2012 10:12 pm

Oman wrote:
geojed wrote:I too would like to point out one thing...er...too...the Global Climate has not warmed at all in the last 16yrs. Temperatures have stayed statistically constant and have actually declined the last two years. :xST


I'm not a math major or a geologist. You say global temps have "not warmed at all in the last 16 years." Am I reading this NASA chart wrong:

P.S. Here is the source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/


That graph shows the Earth coming out of the Little Ice Age and warming up yes. Looking at the 16yr smaller time period that begins 6 months after the El Nino ended in 1997 and to the present, the data looks like this. This is from the UK Meteorlogical Office HADCRUT data. 3000 weather stations around the world.

Image

The issue is not so much the warming that is occuring. The Earth has warmed and cooled for millenia as Dex's picture shows. The issue is that the GCM's that everybody relies on predict only a constant warming that goes on into infinity like Mann's infamous "Hockey Stick" did. But since there has been a pause in the warming for 16yrs now (which is incidently what NASA and the UK Met said was the length would have to be to be a "significant" pause) it calls into serious question the GCM's ability to actually "model" the climate and their reliance on CO2 as a temperature driver. (i.e. CO2 concentration has constantly increased these past 16yrs but the temperature has not. Why?)

Oh, and BTW, I am a Geologist. :wink:
• It's by getting away from life that we can see it most clearly... It's by depriving ourselves of the myriad of everyday experiences that we renew our appreciation for them...I've learned from my experiences in the mountains that I love life. — Dave Johnston
• Mountains are not climbed merely to reach a geographical location — but as personal and spiritual challenges to the participants. — David Stein
• The best climber in the world is the one who’s having the most fun.— Alex Lowe
• Why do I climb the mountain? Because I'm in love! — The Captain

User avatar
Posts: 1295
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2010 3:44 pm
Location: Fort Collins

Re: Where is the SNOW!!!

Postby Dave B » Mon Nov 26, 2012 11:41 pm

geojed wrote:
Oman wrote:
geojed wrote:I too would like to point out one thing...er...too...the Global Climate has not warmed at all in the last 16yrs. Temperatures have stayed statistically constant and have actually declined the last two years. :xST


I'm not a math major or a geologist. You say global temps have "not warmed at all in the last 16 years." Am I reading this NASA chart wrong:

P.S. Here is the source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/


That graph shows the Earth coming out of the Little Ice Age and warming up yes. Looking at the 16yr smaller time period that begins 6 months after the El Nino ended in 1997 and to the present, the data looks like this. This is from the UK Meteorlogical Office HADCRUT data. 3000 weather stations around the world.

Image

The issue is not so much the warming that is occuring. The Earth has warmed and cooled for millenia as Dex's picture shows. The issue is that the GCM's that everybody relies on predict only a constant warming that goes on into infinity like Mann's infamous "Hockey Stick" did. But since there has been a pause in the warming for 16yrs now (which is incidently what NASA and the UK Met said was the length would have to be to be a "significant" pause) it calls into serious question the GCM's ability to actually "model" the climate and their reliance on CO2 as a temperature driver. (i.e. CO2 concentration has constantly increased these past 16yrs but the temperature has not. Why?)

Oh, and BTW, I am a Geologist. :wink:


Such an amazing graph presented here.

One would wonder how different it would look if it started just one year later and ended one year earlier.

Cherry picking is the shiznit.
"There is no cheating in climbing, only lying." - Semi-Rad

User avatar
Posts: 788
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 12:16 pm
Location: Denver, CO

Re: Where is the SNOW!!!

Postby Oman » Mon Nov 26, 2012 11:44 pm

Hey Geojed:

Can we agree that Dex's chart is a little crazy? For starters, we should be skeptical of any allegedly math-based chart that has no figures in the y axis. That chart also appears to be claiming some kind of accurate annual temperature measurement all the way back to 2500 BC. Hmmm. I feel better going with NASA data than a chart assembled by two guys in Coeur d'Alene, ID.

As for the chart you put up, it's not from a UK government office but a conservative London tabloid. The chart, and its accompanying newspaper story, was denounced as misleading by the UK agency that had gathered the original weather data. It's good to be skeptical of government data, but wrong to cherry-pick it in a way that discards stuff that doesn't fit an ideological argument. That UK agency says eight of the warmest years on record have come in the past 10 years.
Image

More at: http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/10/14/met-office-in-the-media-14-october-2012/

User avatar
Posts: 778
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 3:34 pm
Location: Thornton (CO Blvd & 136th Ave)

Re: Where is the SNOW!!!

Postby SilverLynx » Tue Nov 27, 2012 12:14 am

Are we to dismiss the idea that an increase in carbon dioxide would cause an increase in atmospheric heat?

http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/keeling_curve
"I learned that courage was not the absence of fear, but the triumph over it. The brave man is not he who does not feel afraid, but he who conquers that fear."
~Nelson Mandela

"Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma - which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition."
~Steve Jobs

User avatar
Posts: 210
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 3:00 pm
Location: Jackson, WY

Re: Where is the SNOW!!!

Postby Upstate Hiker » Tue Nov 27, 2012 12:17 am

The snow is on the Idaho / Wyoming border :P

User avatar
Posts: 790
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2008 7:07 pm
Location: The High Country

Re: Where is the SNOW!!!

Postby RoanMtnMan » Tue Nov 27, 2012 1:16 am

George James wrote: :-k Gosh, Crestone Needle may never be in from the summit ever again...


GJ, thanks for that. Though a terribly depressing thought, it at least sticks to the point of what a thread on "no snow in CO, SO FAR!" is about on a climbing website. I thought this was a discussion meant to air grievances about the fact that Mother Nature won't let us strap sticks on our feet, climb up a slope, and ride down with snow hitting us in the face or perhaps the happiness to bag some peaks in winter with more ease and less danger than usual. Do we really need to get into the climate change discussion again? We have had several above average snowy winters here over the last few years (excluding the last) and averages do what they do. Climate change is happening, always has and always will. Everyone has an opinion on the subject and luckily there are many better avenues to effect change if you desire. Let's get out to the mountains in the mean time!
Always follow the 7 P's. Proper Planning & Preparation, Prevents Piss-Poor Performance.

"An adventure is misery and discomfort, relived in the safety of reminiscence.” --Marco Polo

www.CalebWrayPhotography.com

PreviousNext

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests