safest 13er this weekend

[jkillgore]

The large Loveland Pass area accident happened about his time of year two years ago

Yes, it happened immediately after a big storm. Spring avalanches are just as big as winter avalanches and are just as deadly. However, the snowpack typically stabilizes faster after a spring storm because of freeze thaw cycles and consolidation. Typically in winter, avalanche danger can persist for a week or even several weeks after a big storm. In spring, it usually stabilizes (and consolidates) faster. That said though, in spring, as the snowpack saturates with warm temperatures, snow begins to flow down hill like a slurpee and thus wet slabs become a problem (regardless if there have been any recent storms-wet slabs happen for a different reason), especially on warm afternoons.

In other words, spring avalanches are just as big and just as dangerous, but overall they tend to be more predictable (if you know what to look for), although there are exceptions due to weather patters and snowpack. What happened in 2013 should have been preventable and avalanche danger was extreme during that time period. My intention is not to criticize those involved, but given the size and prolong period of the previous storms, avalanches shouldn't have been unexpected. We canceled our trip that same weekend, because we knew avalanche danger would be too high.

Avalanche danger for the sheep creek slide was considerable, not extreme. Maybe you are just being loose with your terminology, but extreme has a distinct meaning in the context of avalanche education and reporting. I think it is important not to let people think that the sheep creek accident was the result of ignoring an "extreme" avy report, but rather the result of inadequate travel habits (spacing, safe zones), and exposure to the one aspect that was particularly problematic (N) at that time. This year has been very different. I have seen no reports of PWL slide activity for quite sometime (aside from some wet-slab results during the 1st big warming cycle). Not to overgeneralize to all aspects and elevations, but it seems the primary avalanche problem now is storm snow. From what I saw last weekend, the storm snow is 50-100 cm deep at high elevation and consolidating well. The main thing to check is the bonding of this new snow to the snow that transitioned to more spring like during our preceding warm events. With bad bonding, and a dense, consolidating slab, some very sizable avalanches are still possible.

[Scott P]

Avalanche danger for the sheep creek slide was considerable, not extreme. Maybe you are just being loose with your terminology

I was not referring to or thinking of the report when I used the word “extreme” (though to be fair, I am a stickler for definitions, so maybe I should use the ones in the report-I don't look at the reports that often because I usually have a good idea of the avalanche danger based on weather patterns-though I like to check layering on the site). I didn’t even bother looking at the report before cancelling our trip. To me, it doesn't matter what the report said. Avalanche danger is always high after a big storm, and especially after a series of big storms. Avalanches should always be expected in the mountains after a big snowstorm, regardless of any avy forecast.

I’m not that old, but when we learned to winter climb, there was no such thing as checking the internet for an avalanche forecast. Everyone simply knew that immediately after a big snowstorm that any open slopes are avy prone.

I think it is important not to let people think that the sheep creek accident was the result of ignoring an "extreme" avy report, but rather the result of inadequate travel habits (spacing, safe zones),

I both (respectfully) disagree and agree with this statement. There are plenty of climbs/routes that can be done, even when avalanche danger is high (and by "high" I don't mean simply checking the forecast), so with proper route selection, you can climb on any day of the year. The trick is to stay on ridgetops, but away from cornices, whenever there is avalanche danger. Although there are exceptions to this rule, ridgetops are usually not very avalanche prone, unless you fall of a cornice. Spacing, beacons, probes, et al aren't as important as staying away from open slopes after a snowstorm. Regardless of what the avy forecast said or didn't say, or if it is even checked, appropriate route selection and your location is the most important aspect when it comes to avoiding avalanches. So, while any climber/skier/whoever can't be faulted for getting out that weekend (I do a climb every weekend regardless, as do many people), open slopes should always be avoided after a snowstorm regardless of what equipment one does or doesn't have and regardless of spacing.

Not to overgeneralize to all aspects and elevations, but it seems the primary avalanche problem now is storm snow. From what I saw last weekend, the storm snow is 50-100 cm deep at high elevation and consolidating well. The main thing to check is the bonding of this new snow to the snow that transitioned to more spring like during our preceding warm events. With bad bonding, and a dense, consolidating slab, some very sizable avalanches are still possible.

Yes, I agree with this. Less anyone misunderstand, in the original post I was speaking specifically about the asked about specifically and specifically for the weekend.

The route to Dyer Mountain, for example, is relatively low angled and has full exposure to the sun. Overall, most parts of the route (assuming you pick the right route) generally aren't prone to sliding, but there are a few short slopes that could slide when the danger is high. As far as the last weekend’s storm goes, given the temperatures, and the aspects/sun exposure of that slope I would expect the snow to consolidate rather quickly, and by the weekend (I wouldn’t suggest it right now), but as I said, the climber should check this himself and use caution. Right now the weather forecast seems to be getting wetter for the weekend as well (it wasn't as wet when I checked it prior), so if any new snow falls, that will also be a factor.

On North Star, you can avoid the avalanche danger completely by staying directly on the ridgetop. I would not recommend using the road and under the slope in the photograph provided earlier.

As mentioned on Lackawanna, I’d really recommend using the couloir route, which is better than the south slopes route, but only after the snow stabilizes. I would not suggest it as a good route for the weekend, since the snow in the couloir might need more time to consolidate. Couloir routes always require more caution than routes on ridgetops or on gentle slopes.

[jkillgore]

To belabor the tangent, because I think the comparison is interesting and timely:

For sheep creek, snow fall total was ~12" over the 4 days leading up to the accident. This snow came after a heavy storm (20-30") that effectively reactivated the deep persistent weak layers on north facing slopes. 4 days of no or light snow in the spring will often be plenty of time to stabilize the recent snow. It wont stabilize deeper weak layers. I skied south facing powder at high elevation the day of the sheep creek accident, specifically to avoid the terrain that harbored the deep PWLs, while still taking advantage of great skiing. If we had triggered a slide that day, it would have been in the storm snow.

Contrast the weather leading up to sheep creek with the past week in CO. 12-36" of snow fell across the state up to the 18th, just like the weekend before sheep creek. This was followed by just light snow the remainder of the week (few inches per day). The setup and calender are remarkably similar to 2013. If avalanche conditions were extreme due only to the "heavy storm" leading up to sheep creek, this past saturday should have been the same. It wasnt. The deeper snowpack is generally strong this spring. The spring storms are stabilizing fairly rapidly, and backcountry travel seems reasonable if you are able to manage isolated pockets of shallower instability and remain conscious of elevated instability immediately following the heavier snow events.

This coming weekend will have had even better conditions for stabilizing the newest storm snow. The sat evening to monday snow ended very warm and wet from what I saw yesterday. I suspect that the snowpack in at least a few places is slightly upside down today, but it will likely tend to correct itself in the next few warm days. My main point is that 2015 is a very different spring than 2013. Avalanches will still be possible this year, however they will be much more predictable, hopefully smaller in size, and hopefully without fatal consequences.

I agree completely regarding terrain selection. If the interest is hiking peaks versus skiing, it is often very reasonable to stay on ridges. But if one wants to venture into avalanche terrain (e.g. to ski, or climb couloirs), it helps to view the snowpack integrated over the particular season, rather than just in light of the last few days or weeks.

[Scott P]

Great post; thank for clarifying.

[ewaag23]

What about Mt Sniktau/Grizzly peak/ Torrey's from Loveland? I've done it before, and I know as long as you're on the ridge and stay aware of the large cornices you should be fine, but is there any danger on that first approach? Or anywhere on the hike for that matter? I'll be solo and I'm not very confident with my evaluation skills so I want to do something I can be pretty sure of.

For clarification, was the consensus that avy terrain en route to Snik/Griz this weekend is probably unavoidable in the vicinity of the loveland pass trailhead area, or would it be avoidable by sticking to ridgeline?

[ameristrat]

If it is safe to the trailhead (the top of Loveland pass) there is little avy danger to sniktau and/or grizzly as long as you stick to the ridge top and avoid cornices. Basically, if Loveland pass is open, then grizzly or sniktau are good choices when avy danger is more of a problem

[Grover]

Anyone considering Dyer Mountain on Saturday, 5/2?

[eyost11]

I did Sniktau on Wednesday sunset in trail runners and had excellent packed bootpath with the trail a reasonable distance from cornices. Cupid and Grizzly D are even safer.

[JGiffinPhotog]

I'm thinking about hitting Grizzly tomorrow if anyone else is thinking about it as well & wants to meet up.

[rijaca]

Golden Bear via lift 9 and the ridge kitty....

[awake]

Figured I'd resurrect this thread rather than starting a new one... With all of the recent snow we've been getting, how do the conditions look on the front range? Any particular hikes/climbs at higher elevation (12er, 13er, 14er) someone would recommend that seem to be safe from an avalanche perspective?

[Trotter]

Figured I'd resurrect this thread rather than starting a new one... With all of the recent snow we've been getting, how do the conditions look on the front range? Any particular hikes/climbs at higher elevation (12er, 13er, 14er) someone would recommend that seem to be safe from an avalanche perspective?

I think Sniktau, Grizzly D, and Cupid are all safe from avalanche.