Will Quandry and Sherman be safe this weekend?

[enricofermi]

Hi guys. Sorry for the trouble. My friend and I were planning on climbing Quandry or Sherman this Sunday, 1/15. These were recommended due to low avalanche risk. However, someone told us the avalanche danger is now high on these due to the current conditions. Can anyone offer any advice on this. Should we cancel? Would there be anything else we could climb? A 13er or 12er? Or what about some winter hiking somewhere? Thanks for the help guys. We really appreciate it.

[Scott P]

Quandary probably will be fairly safe if you stay on route, but check this for yourself. Under very rare conditions, the standard route has had slides. Also, if you don't stay on route you can get into dangerous terrain very quickly.

If you carefully select your route, you can usually find a relatively safe route up Sherman from Fourmile Creek, but not always. I'd use extreme caution right now. Quandary is a better bet.

Elbert's East Ridge is almost always safe as long as you stay on route, but once again, if you get off route, you can get into dangerous terrain very quickly. It's a long hike in winter as well.

[SkaredShtles]

Quandary probably will be fairly safe if you stay on route, but check this for yourself. Under very rare conditions, the standard route has had slides. Also, if you don't stay on route you can get into dangerous terrain very quickly.

If you carefully select your route, you can usually find a relatively safe route up Sherman from Fourmile Creek, but not always. I'd use extreme caution right now. Quandary is a better bet.

Elbert's East Ridge is almost always safe as long as you stay on route, but once again, if you get off route, you can get into dangerous terrain very quickly. It's a long hike in winter as well.

Agree with this. If you don't know how to assess terrain for avalanches I would strongly recommend against climbing these currently.

[AyeYo]

Has that "winter route" hill to gain the ridge on Quandary ever slid? I know it's low(er) angle on average, but there's definitely some short, at least 30-35 degree sections and it is east facing.

[mtree]

Has that "winter route" hill to gain the ridge on Quandary ever slid? I know it's low(er) angle on average, but there's definitely some short, at least 30-35 degree sections and it is east facing.

YES!

[AyeYo]

Any link to CAIC reports on it? Would be interesting to read.

[mtree]

I don't know. But I have seen pics or video of a dog causing a fairly substantial slide. Saw the aftermath first hand.

[XterraRob]

There are sections of Quandary's standard route that are steep enough to slide in the right conditions, so it's something to watch out for. As of Saturday there were sections that were loading up on snow due to the wind and sections along the tip of the ridge that were scoured enough to walk along safely. If you're skeptical about assessing the terrain, I'd advise staying off of any mountain that has potential to slide just to keep yourself out of danger in the near future.

[DaveLanders]

I don't know. But I have seen pics or video of a dog causing a fairly substantial slide. Saw the aftermath first hand.

This was in the bowl just north of the standard route, NOT on the standard route itself. People ski this bowl because it offers better skiing than the standard route; of course the reason the skiing is better is that the bowl is an accumulation zone. This just reinforces the earlier posters' points about staying on route.

[avvilliams]

I probably could have asked this on the Quandary X forum, but I thought this was just a tad more fitting -- Not sure if it's already been stated, but are there particular regions on the mountain that are more prone to exhibiting avalanche conditions/what are those areas? Thanks!

[AyeYo]

The main areas you're likely to get off course and into bad terrain are the two black X's, especially the one on the right.

[skycripp]

These were recommended due to low avalanche risk. However, someone told us the avalanche danger is now high on these due to the current conditions. Can anyone offer any advice on this. Should we cancel? Would there be anything else we could climb?

To be blunt: If you have to ask, probably best to avoid avalanche terrain on any peak. The dangers of any slide can't be understood until you've studied them and know how to assess and travel through avy terrain. I was once in your exact situation: scouring internet forums and asking strangers about whether or not I should try a climb. In hindsight, I see that I was way over my head. No peak is safe in winter, especially when avalanche forecasts are as high as they are now. Avoid the high country, and stick with some nice hikes below treeline (if it's not too far, Raspberry Mtn in Divide is an awesome hike).

P.S. It's probably too early to get a truly accurate answer from anyone on here. We're still a long way from the weekend as far as avy science is considered, and any one of a number of contributing factors could either decrease or increase danger on these peaks.

Also: I didn't see anyone else provide this yet, so here's the state-wide avalanche forecast site. As a beginner, I wouldn't recommend going out unless the area you're climbing is green. Have fun out there! http://avalanche.state.co.us/