2013 winter forecast

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The_Godfather
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2013 winter forecast

Postby The_Godfather » Fri Sep 21, 2012 8:51 am

According to the farmers almanac - http://snowboarding.transworld.net/1000183275/news/farmers-almanac-2012-2013-winter-outlook/ - it looks like we are in for a warmer than normal average winter. I remember last year some of you guys had a some better sites for the forecast that turned out to be more spot on than this - what are you guys finding as far as what winter should bring? I'd take "average" over "last year" any day thats for sure!
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gratzo
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Re: 2013 winter forecast

Postby gratzo » Fri Sep 21, 2012 11:37 am

Noooooo! Don't do it! Don't look at long-term forecasts!!!! :-)

I'm a meteorologist and run Opensnow.com (great for snow forecasts) and Chanceofweather.com (great for outdoor activity forecasts, like running, biking, etc). From everything I've read and seen, there's very little skill in season-ahead forecasts. Plus, they are mostly useless for outdoor activity purposes. Perhaps they are useful for water managers or DOT managers who need to buy salt six months before the winter, but otherwise I hate talking about them.

In the VERY snowy winter of 2010-2011, over 25% of the snow that fell at Schofield Pass (between Aspen and Crested Butte) came from just two storms out of the 40ish storms that hit Colorado that winter. Because just one storm can have a tremendous impact on the total amount of snow in a season, long-term forecasts are often rendered wildly wrong if just one or two storms hit in just the right place (or happen to miss a location).

Feel free to compare all the 15+ seasonal forecasts I've seen shared around the web this fall, but don't bet on any of them. Play each storm as it comes around and you'll have a great season no matter what!

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Mark A Steiner
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Re: 2013 winter forecast

Postby Mark A Steiner » Fri Sep 21, 2012 12:23 pm

I observe weather, and recall how the winter of 2010-2011 was not spectacular until after March 15. The long-term trend since then seems to be the promotion of a semi-permanent high pressure system over the southwest United States dominating weather much of the time, occasionally broken by those welcome Pacific storms. As gratzo pointed out, one or two of those storms can be spectacular locally, even regionally, then the weather quickly returns to a sunny and dry regime that bares the south slopes of the highest peaks until the next snow arrives.

The experts have said this should be an El Nino year. The experts are wet behind the ears. We'll see.

One thing you can count on - it will storm like the dickens somewhere between Denver and Phoenix December 23 - because I travel overland west that day!
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Re: 2013 winter forecast

Postby EatinHardtack » Fri Sep 21, 2012 12:42 pm

Agree with Joel on this one. I'll wait until it either snows or it doesn't. If we don't get at least a somewhat normal snowpack the reservoirs are going to be low and water issues are going to be the norm.

Pray for snow.
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Re: 2013 winter forecast

Postby TT BOY » Fri Sep 21, 2012 2:20 pm

Love Opensnow.com btw
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tenpins
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Re: 2013 winter forecast

Postby tenpins » Fri Sep 21, 2012 2:45 pm

but I just read on facebook that there is actually more ice now in Antarctica than ever before in since records began! so we should be hip deep in snow all year, no? \:D/
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Re: 2013 winter forecast

Postby SeracZack » Fri Sep 21, 2012 2:47 pm

tenpins wrote:but I just read on facebook that there is actually more ice now in Antarctica than ever before in since records began!


Definitely going to need a better source than Facebook for that statement.
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Re: 2013 winter forecast

Postby kushrocks » Fri Sep 21, 2012 2:55 pm

SeracZack wrote:
tenpins wrote:but I just read on facebook that there is actually more ice now in Antarctica than ever before in since records began!


Definitely going to need a better source than Facebook for that statement.


Yep especially since everything I have read from NOAA says the opposite of that.
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tenpins
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Re: 2013 winter forecast

Postby tenpins » Fri Sep 21, 2012 3:16 pm

Im glad that raises doubt. It was on a friends page, shared from a place titled "things liberals hate", and it made that very claim.

Seriously, the arctic icepack is the smallest ever as well, with speculation that there may be an ice free arctic summer in the next decade.
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Re: 2013 winter forecast

Postby myfeetrock » Fri Sep 21, 2012 4:34 pm

I read in the Post Independent a few weeks back that this would be a great snowy and cold winter for Colorado. The guy even said to expect mountain snow by mid september. I know it can snow med sept. any year, but I like the way it sounds. Epic year!
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Re: 2013 winter forecast

Postby TravelingMatt » Fri Sep 21, 2012 4:41 pm

SeracZack wrote:
tenpins wrote:but I just read on facebook that there is actually more ice now in Antarctica than ever before in since records began!


Definitely going to need a better source than Facebook for that statement.


Whaddya mean? The ice has 174,542 friends!
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Re: 2013 winter forecast

Postby Point North » Sat Sep 22, 2012 10:07 am

I flew over the peaks in June, and the snowpack was almost entirely gone then. So it's going to have to snow very hard and very long to come back to normal.

That said, let it snow! Let is snow now, hard and long, without stop until next spring. Which it won't, but it doesn't hurt to hope.

And hope and fantasy may be all that we have left, in this age of incredibly rapid global warming. Visit a glacier today; they are terminal and in their last days.

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